4960 E Empire Ave · Flagstaff, AZ 86004

$175,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2005 $156/sqft · 43% below area Est $306k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your affordable Flagstaff home awaits you! A large fenced lot gives this home the unique feature of privacy and space for parking, dogs, kids, etc. Enjoy a split floor plan that makes sense, with generous bedroom sizes and a large bathroom and closet in the primary. Centrally located in Flagstaff, this is a prime opportunity to own real estate in a convenient location as a vacation home or your primary residence! Lot rent is 990/month. Buyer must be approved by Jo-Don village.

Key facts

• Large closet
• Split floor plan
• Large bathroom

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GENEROUS BEDROOM SIZES
• LARGE BATHROOM
• LARGE CLOSET
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $175,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$306,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $750 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $175k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.38%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -42.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4837 E Kinsey Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-2%)	2mo	$403,000	$368	86
4822 E Merriam Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,094 (-2%)	4mo	$420,000	$384	84
5250 W Us-89 -- #1	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+2%)	11mo	$194,000	$170	77
4914 E Bullwinkle Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,188 (+6%)	2mo	$395,000	$332	75
4975 E Dean Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-7%)	11mo	$120,000	$115	74
5250 N Us 89a #5	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	3mo	$150,000	$123	72
4895 E Allen Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+15%)	2mo	$140,000	$109	68
5600 N Dakota #17 St #17	0.13mi	3/2.0	960 (-14%)	2mo	$106,500	$111	67
4354 E Crystal Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-4%)	5mo	$250,000	$231	65
6061 N Snowflake Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,061 (-5%)	4mo	$262,000	$247	61
4436 E Crystal Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,222 (+9%)	4mo	$350,000	$286	59
4347 E Wintergreen Rd	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+11%)	8mo	$445,000	$357	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $16,001
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $61,782
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86004

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $750

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $871	-5% $811	+0% $750	+5% $690	+10% $629
Rent	-10% $554	-5% $652	+0% $750	+5% $848	+10% $946
Rate	-1.0pp $839	-0.5pp $795	base $750	+0.5pp $705	+1.0pp $659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5000 N Mall Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,299	$2.61	44d	7	0.36mi
5404 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,240	$2.94	44d	1	1.05mi
5250 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,160	$2.95	44d	1	1.17mi
5303 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$2,520	$3.30	44d	1	1.20mi
5205 E Cortland Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$2,162	$3.03	44d	16	1.34mi
4343 E Soliere Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$2,995	$3.00	44d	12	1.39mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-04-11
    historical
19. 2026-04-10
    listed $175,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Your affordable Flagstaff home awaits you! A large fenced lot gives this home the unique feature of privacy and space for parking, dogs, kids, etc. Enjoy a split floor plan that makes sense, with generous bedroom sizes and a large bathroom and closet in the primary. Centrally located in Flagstaff, this is a prime opportunity to own real estate in a convenient location as a vacation home or your primary residence! Lot rent is 990/month. Buyer must be approved by Jo-Don village.

20. 2026-04-10
    listed $175,000 Active 481-char remark

    Show marketing remark (481 chars)

    Your affordable Flagstaff home awaits you! A large fenced lot gives this home the unique feature of privacy and space for parking, dogs, kids, etc. Enjoy a split floor plan that makes sense, with generous bedroom sizes and a large bathroom and closet in the primary. Centrally located in Flagstaff, this is a prime opportunity to own real estate in a convenient location as a vacation home or your primary residence! Lot rent is 990/month. Buyer must be approved by Jo-Don village.

21. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $64,500 Closed
22. 2021-02-26
    listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥88°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $6,612
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,587
• After-tax cash flow: $7,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,394
• Household income: $81,172
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1475.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 13% Native American 12% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -454.67%
• Current HPI: 411.8577
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+150.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $175,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $64,500 NAZMLS
• 2021-02-26 Listed $69,900 NAZMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $249 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.