95 Reid Ln · Winchester, TN 37398

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1983 0.70 ac lot Est $204k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ONLINE ABSOLUTE AUCTION! BID NOW ONLINE ONLY @ WWW.WINTONAUCTION.COM UNTIL TUES., MAY 25 @ 10AM. PREVIEW FRI., MAY 21 4-6PM. Very nice 3 bed 2 bath house with living room, kitchen, utility room, partially fenced backyard, vinyl & tile floors, renovated bathroom, two storage buildings, mature shade trees, and central HVAC. This house is on a quiet street near downtown Winchester and Twin Creeks Marina. This is a great opportunity to own a turn key rental property or a place to call home!

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 4 total parking spaces (all are open)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water available; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built (existing); Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Covered porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric oven, Electric range, Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bedroom sizes approximately 12 x 10, 11 x 11, and 10 x 10
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric oven, Electric range, Dishwasher; Laminate flooring; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $326 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Winchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#149 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities D-.
• Franklin County (town): math 18% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #111 of 139 in TN (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Clark Memorial School (math 14% / reading 27%, grade F, #637 of 952 statewide, top 68%, 489 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Co High School (math 5% / reading 22%, grade F, #255 of 332 statewide, top 77%, 1,180 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 48% district-wide (48 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Franklin County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $200k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.99%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,248
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
458 Woods Edge Rd	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,040 (+7%)	7mo	$219,900	$211	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,711
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,199
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37398

• Home prices YoY: -21.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $326

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 108 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 105 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $199,900 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $204,900 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $204,900 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $204,900 Active 95 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $204,900 Active 94 DOM
19. 2026-04-13
    price $204,900
20. 2026-04-13
    price $199,900
21. 2026-03-30
    price $209,900
22. 2026-03-15
    price $214,900
23. 2026-03-10
    price $219,900
24. 2026-03-06
    price $222,900
25. 2026-02-26
    listed $224,900 Active
26. 2026-02-24
    historical $224,900
27. 2021-06-24
    soldstatus $130,500 Closed 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    ONLINE ABSOLUTE AUCTION! BID NOW ONLINE ONLY @ WWW.WINTONAUCTION.COM UNTIL TUES., MAY 25 @ 10AM. PREVIEW FRI., MAY 21 4-6PM. Very nice 3 bed 2 bath house with living room, kitchen, utility room, partially fenced backyard, vinyl & tile floors, renovated bathroom, two storage buildings, mature shade trees, and central HVAC. This house is on a quiet street near downtown Winchester and Twin Creeks Marina. This is a great opportunity to own a turn key rental property or a place to call home!

28. 2021-05-25
    status Pending 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    ONLINE ABSOLUTE AUCTION! BID NOW ONLINE ONLY @ WWW.WINTONAUCTION.COM UNTIL TUES., MAY 25 @ 10AM. PREVIEW FRI., MAY 21 4-6PM. Very nice 3 bed 2 bath house with living room, kitchen, utility room, partially fenced backyard, vinyl & tile floors, renovated bathroom, two storage buildings, mature shade trees, and central HVAC. This house is on a quiet street near downtown Winchester and Twin Creeks Marina. This is a great opportunity to own a turn key rental property or a place to call home!

29. 2021-05-04
    listed Active 495-char remark

    Show marketing remark (495 chars)

    ONLINE ABSOLUTE AUCTION! BID NOW ONLINE ONLY @ WWW.WINTONAUCTION.COM UNTIL TUES., MAY 25 @ 10AM. PREVIEW FRI., MAY 21 4-6PM. Very nice 3 bed 2 bath house with living room, kitchen, utility room, partially fenced backyard, vinyl & tile floors, renovated bathroom, two storage buildings, mature shade trees, and central HVAC. This house is on a quiet street near downtown Winchester and Twin Creeks Marina. This is a great opportunity to own a turn key rental property or a place to call home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$635/yr (+$53/mo · 81.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $636
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$153
• After-tax cash flow: $3,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Franklin County
• NCES district ID: 4701290
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $43,108
• Composite: 17.24/100
• National rank: #9094
• State rank: #111 of 139 in TN

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #13341

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winchester, TN
• Population (ZIP): 15,712

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,858 people
• By 2030: 43,540 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 44,623 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 45,523 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 48,954 · +14.2%
• By 2100: 50,170 · +17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.2) · D 23.0% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -53.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.2 2020: R+47.7 2016: R+43.7 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.03%
• Current HPI: 333.839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+57.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $204,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $199,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $209,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $214,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $219,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $222,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $224,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Coming Soon $224,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-24 Sold (MLS) $130,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-25 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-04 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.