1086 Forest Ave · Burton, MI 48509

$97,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 770 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1939 0.51 ac lot Est $133k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home, 2 bedroom plus office or nursery. Cozy, private setting on spacious lot includes pole barn and covered parking or shaded entertaining party patio. Home needs work and updates. Full basement with laundry hook ups. Lots of potential with sweat equity. In an area of many well-cared for homes showing pride in the neighborhood.

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1939

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Carport; Approximately 1.5 parking spaces in garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Public power (typical for area); Forced air heating on natural gas
• Home design: Residential, single-story home; Built in 1939; Basement foundation; Faces within a city neighborhood (Burton), located in the Glendale Acres subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Basement foundation; Built in 1939
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen on entry level (approx. 10 x 7) with carpet
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on entry level, about 11 x 10 with wood flooring; Bedroom 2 on entry level, about 11 x 10 with wood flooring; Total of 6 rooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring in bedrooms; Carpet in kitchen and living room; Vinyl flooring in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on entry level with vinyl flooring (approx. 8 x 5)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel
• Interior features: Natural fireplace; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement present (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.8% in Burton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#555 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Bentley Community School District (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #473 of 540 in MI (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $677 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,431 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.33%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,210
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1201 Glendale St	0.27mi	2/1.0	700 (-9%)	2mo	$130,000	$186	71
5305 Lapeer Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0	814 (+6%)	6mo	$88,000	$108	68
1454 Merle Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	776 (+1%)	1mo	$146,500	$189	65
6044 Pearl St	0.74mi	2/1.0	784 (+2%)	13mo	$142,500	$182	52
1321 S Genesee Rd	0.70mi	2/1.0	816 (+6%)	8mo	$105,000	$129	50
1363 Audrey St	0.52mi	2/1.0	724 (-6%)	18mo	$125,000	$173	50
1314 Mcewen St	0.46mi	2/1.0	864 (+12%)	23mo	$118,000	$137	39
1332 Cutler St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	884 (+15%)	15mo	$145,500	$165	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $25,383
• Equity at exit: $14,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.75×
• Total profit: $75,285
• Equity at exit: $8,465

Cash invested: $27,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48509

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$513
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $856

Max offer price $97,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,475
• Closing costs: $2,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1442 Lasalle Ave Burton, MI	3.0	1.5	942	$1,675	$1.78	43d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on marketlisting id $97,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 344-char remark
12. 2026-06-01
    remarks 341-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    listed $97,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,484
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,848
• Taxable income: $6,601
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,584
• After-tax cash flow: $6,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentley Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2604800
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,977
• Composite: 16.51/100
• National rank: #9183
• State rank: #473 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #555
• US rank: #17380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burton, MI
• City population: 26,014
• Population (ZIP): 9,532

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.63%
• Current HPI: 210.1588
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Coming Soon $97,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,462 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.