86 Road 5102 Unit L · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$239,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 535 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 0.32 ac lot $134/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is nearly completed. Could be used as a first time buyer or investment property

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $35 ($421/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northside El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 1,235 students, 90% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 71% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 535 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,234 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 535 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,953
• List price: $239,000
• Delta: -2.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
130 County Road 5102b	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,868 (+5%)	13mo	$299,990	$161	76
286 County Road 5102 Unit F	0.36mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,692 (-5%)	1mo	$224,000	$132	67
1148 Road 5102	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,588 (-11%)	3mo	$275,000	$173	66
1454 Road 5102	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,722 (-3%)	15mo	$210,000	$122	63
104 County Road 5102 A	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,686 (-5%)	8mo	$296,990	$176	63
140 County Road 5102b	0.07mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (+12%)	13mo	$309,990	$156	59
165 Road 51030	0.13mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,986 (+12%)	15mo	$304,990	$154	55
96 County Road 51030	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,518 (-15%)	10mo	$277,990	$183	54
275 County Road 5102f	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,646 (-7%)	12mo	$214,900	$131	50
84 County Road 5102a	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,518 (-15%)	11mo	$268,990	$177	44
274 County Road 5102f	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,646 (-7%)	15mo	$215,900	$131	44
14 County Road 5102f	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-8%)	15mo	$165,000	$101	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-34,342
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-18,016
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,118/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $103	+0% $35	+5% $-33	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-48	+0% $35	+5% $118	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $96	base $35	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1176 Road 5102 Cleveland, TX	4.0	3.0	2032	$2,150	$1.06	45d	1	0.14mi
26 Road 5102 F Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,501	$0.85	24d	1	0.45mi
670 Road 51021 Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,749	$1.03	0d	7	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,000 Active 535 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 532 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 531 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 530 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 529 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,000 Active 527 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,000 Active 523 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,000 Active 522 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,000 Active 521 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,000 Active 518 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,000 Active 517 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,000 Active 516 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,000 Active 515 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,000 Active 514 DOM
15. 2025-01-02
    listed $239,000 Active 84-char remark

    Show marketing remark (84 chars)

    Home is nearly completed. Could be used as a first time buyer or investment property

16. 2020-05-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,118 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,374 · $364/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,256/yr (+$105/mo · 40.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,118
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,018
• − Management: −$2,018
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$3,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $1,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

Nearly completed home with good condition and minimal repairs needed. Ready for move-in or investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing touches like paint touch-ups and minor repairs can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior finishing touches — Finishing touches like paint touch-ups and minor repairs can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-01-02 Listed $239,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+30.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,118 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.