5012 Trailbend Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$179,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1972 7,235 sqft lot Est $208k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Five Thousand Dollar U. S. D. credit to buyer. Priced to sell. Major employers near Black Jack, MO include * Amazon, * Mallinckrodt, and * Fiserv. * Other notable employers in the area include * Walmart, * Mercy Health System, and * BJC Healthcare. * Ascend Health Solutions.

Key facts

• 7,235 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1972

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.26%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $207,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,268 (0%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	100
12539 Early Morning Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+11%)	1mo	$225,000	$159	68
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,218 (-4%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	66
5237 Trailview Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+11%)	0mo	$208,000	$148	62
13300 Old Jamestown Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+11%)	12mo	$275,000	$195	61
4830 Parkton Pl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+10%)	16mo	$228,000	$163	60
12508 Early Morning Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+11%)	12mo	$230,000	$164	54
12820 High Crest St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,137 (-10%)	1mo	$185,000	$163	52
5334 Trailview Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,181 (-7%)	20mo	$79,900	$68	50
12705 Stubwood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,179 (-7%)	7mo	$265,000	$225	49
5106 Midday Dr	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,082 (-15%)	16mo	$237,400	$219	39
4453 Cloverbrook Dr	0.72mi	3/3.0	1,428 (+13%)	16mo	$256,400	$180	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $131,815
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.83×
• Total profit: $392,382
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$212 /mo · $2,543/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $488	-5% $437	+0% $387	+5% $336	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $225	-5% $306	+0% $387	+5% $467	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $477	-0.5pp $432	base $387	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $293

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Springtrail Dr Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.5	1712	$2,390	$1.40	22d	1	0.29mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,156	$0.94	2d	17	1.01mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	1.11mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	18d	1	1.23mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	8d	1	1.36mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	44d	1	1.37mi
5454 Misty Crossing Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1518	$2,196	$1.45	8d	1	1.42mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-08
   price $179,000
4. 2026-03-11
   price $189,000
5. 2026-02-25
   status Active
6. 2025-05-17
   listed $199,000 Active
7. 2023-02-01
   soldstatus $185,000
8. 2022-03-22
   soldstatus $105,000
9. 1983-10-01
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,543 · $212/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,543 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,543
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,959
• − Management: −$1,959
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $1,894
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$455
• After-tax cash flow: $4,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+208.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $179,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $189,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-17 Listed $199,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,543 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.