130 Arabian Ct · Longview, TX 75645

$419,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2016 5.02 ac lot $200/sqft · 14% below area Est $490k · 14% under $35/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.4/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the desirable North Longview area, this beautiful home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience. Featuring 5 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, the home boasts an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on 5 picturesque acres with gentle rolling hills, this property offers a park-like setting with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors while maintaining privacy and tranquility in a peaceful neighborhood. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from North Longview’s shopping and dining destinations, including Brookshire's Fresh, Target, Sam's Club, and more, you’ll enjoy the serenity of country-style living without sacrificing easy access to modern amenities. This exceptional property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy space, comfort, and convenience in one of the area's most sought-after locations.

Key facts

• Park-like setting
• Open-concept layout
• 5.02 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PARK-LIKE SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (62.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (59.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (62.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.0% in Longview — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#213 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Gilmer ISD (town): math 44% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #372 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,637 (62.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.40% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.04%
• DSCR: 0.33
• GRM: 20.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $489,651
• List price: $419,900
• Delta: -14.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $134,826
• Equity at exit: $378,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.00×
• Total profit: $470,776
• Equity at exit: $815,773

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75645

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,836/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$35
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $-1,473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,563

Max offer price $159,637

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $35 · $420/yr

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $419,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $419,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $419,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $419,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $419,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,900 Active 43 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $429,900 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Nestled in the desirable North Longview area, this beautiful home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience. Featuring 5 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, the home boasts an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on 5 picturesque acres with gentle rolling hills, this property offers a park-like setting with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors while maintaining privacy and tranquility in a peaceful neighborhood. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from North Longview’s shopping and dining destinations, including Brookshire's Fresh, Target, Sam's Club, and more, you’ll enjoy the serenity of country-style living without sacrificing easy access to modern amenities. This exceptional property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy space, comfort, and convenience in one of the area's most sought-after locations.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $439,900 Active 989-char remark

    Show marketing remark (989 chars)

    Nestled in the desirable North Longview area, this beautiful home offers the perfect combination of comfort, space, and convenience. Featuring 5 spacious bedrooms and 3 full bathrooms, the home boasts an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a functional and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on 5 picturesque acres with gentle rolling hills, this property offers a park-like setting with plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors while maintaining privacy and tranquility in a peaceful neighborhood. Conveniently located just 10 minutes from North Longview’s shopping and dining destinations, including Brookshire's Fresh, Target, Sam's Club, and more, you’ll enjoy the serenity of country-style living without sacrificing easy access to modern amenities. This exceptional property offers a rare opportunity to enjoy space, comfort, and convenience in one of the area's most sought-after locations.

20. 2026-02-12
    price $399,900
21. 2026-01-19
    price $404,900
22. 2025-12-29
    price $409,900
23. 2025-12-09
    price $414,900
24. 2025-09-11
    price $419,900
25. 2025-08-04
    price $424,900
26. 2025-06-25
    price $429,900
27. 2025-06-05
    price $434,900
28. 2025-05-22
    price $439,900
29. 2025-05-15
    price $448,900
30. 2025-05-08
    price $455,900
31. 2025-05-01
    price $462,900
32. 2025-04-22
    price $469,900
33. 2025-04-11
    price $485,000
34. 2025-03-21
    listed $500,000 Active
35. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus Closed
36. 2023-06-01
    soldstatus
37. 2023-05-18
    status Pending
38. 2023-05-03
    listed $309,900
39. 2023-04-28
    status Active
40. 2023-04-28
    status Pending
41. 2023-04-17
    price $309,900
42. 2023-04-11
    price $319,900
43. 2023-03-28
    price $345,000
44. 2023-02-14
    listed $362,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,836 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,684 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,848/yr (+$237/mo · 58.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$4,836
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,630
• − Management: −$1,630
• − HOA: −$420
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$25,973
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,233
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilmer ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820700
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,724
• Composite: 35.04/100
• National rank: #5038
• State rank: #372 of 826 in TX

Livability — Longview

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #213
• US rank: #5287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 103,792
• Population (ZIP): 10,511

Population outlook (Upshur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,771 people
• By 2030: 43,788 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 45,574 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 46,683 · +9.1%
• By 2075: 49,137 · +14.9%
• By 2100: 47,457 · +11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Upshur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.0) · D 14.2% · R 85.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.0pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -71.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.0 2020: R+68.5 2016: R+68.0 2012: R+59.8 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.93%
• Current HPI: 319.83
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $429,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $439,900 LAAR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $399,900 LAAR
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $404,900 LAAR
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $409,900 LAAR
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $414,900 LAAR
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $419,900 LAAR
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $424,900 LAAR
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $429,900 LAAR
• 2025-06-05 Price Changed $434,900 LAAR
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $439,900 LAAR
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $448,900 LAAR
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $455,900 LAAR
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $462,900 LAAR
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $469,900 LAAR
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $485,000 LAAR
• 2025-03-21 Listed $500,000 LAAR
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2023-06-01 Sold (MLS) — LAAR
• 2023-05-18 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-05-03 Listed $309,900 GTAR
• 2023-04-28 Relisted — LAAR
• 2023-04-28 Pending — LAAR
• 2023-04-17 Price Changed $309,900 LAAR
• 2023-04-11 Price Changed $319,900 LAAR
• 2023-03-28 Price Changed $345,000 LAAR
• 2023-02-14 Listed $362,500 LAAR

Property tax history

-20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,836 · -20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.