9 Connie Ln · Bella Vista, AR 72715

$298,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 161 Days on market

Built 1996 1,742 sqft lot Est $391k · 24% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Investment Property! Affordable, 2 level WINTER LAKE VIEW Townhome. This unit has 2 living areas. The 1st level has a bedroom and full bath, kitchen, laundry room and nice hardwood floors. Both levels have private covered balconies. The bottom level has large separate living area with full bath. The bedroom downstairs has a large closet, but no window. New roof in 2017. The home needs paint, carpet and a little updating. The unit has plenty of storage areas. It is conveniently located to Hwy 71 B.

Key facts

• Large storage closet
• Flexible bonus room
• Private patio access

Tags

• SEASONAL LAKE VIEWS
• PRIVATE PATIO ACCESS
• FLEXIBLE BONUS ROOM
• LARGE STORAGE CLOSET
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee $40 monthly; Association covers common areas, grounds maintenance, and structure maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, dock, fitness center, golf, playground, recreation area, sauna, tennis courts, lake, park, pool, sidewalks, trails/paths, biking, shopping

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Sewer available; Private sewer
• Home design: Two-story property; Masonite exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Age listed as unknown
• Construction: Masonite construction; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Year built not specified
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Pool access (community pool); Community spa; Cleared lot; City lot; Near park; Subdivision setting; Sloped lot; Shared road frontage; Paved road; On Lake Windsor

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bonus room; Includes a storage room; Has a finished walk-out basement (basement level rooms present)
• Flooring: Brick; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Electric heating; Heat pump
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Window treatments; Storage; Double-pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-419/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Bella Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#111 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bentonville School District (urban): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #3 of 238 in AR (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 827 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 161 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $298k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,266 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 161 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $391,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19 Brompton Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,934 (+1%)	7mo	$500,000	$259	83
2 Portsmouth Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,887 (-2%)	5mo	$575,000	$305	64
14 Basildon Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,065 (+8%)	13mo	$379,960	$184	64
4 Blenheim Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,834 (-4%)	8mo	$389,500	$212	63
27 Basildon Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,736 (-10%)	4mo	$270,000	$156	56
3 Matlock Cir	0.67mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,900 (-1%)	7mo	$355,000	$187	52
5 Matlock Cir	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,998 (+4%)	6mo	$376,000	$188	52
48 Mayfair Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	2,118 (+10%)	11mo	$426,000	$201	51
1 Wembly Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,681 (-12%)	1mo	$697,500	$415	51
34 Basildon Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,631 (-15%)	3mo	$407,750	$250	50
13 Kensington Dr	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (-13%)	4mo	$290,000	$174	50
6 Whitwick Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,726 (-10%)	12mo	$352,500	$204	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,591
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,231
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72715

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 827
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,333 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,810/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,377

Max offer price $291,826

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $49	+0% $-35	+5% $-119	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-219	-5% $-127	+0% $-35	+5% $57	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $41	base $-35	+0.5pp $-112	+1.0pp $-191

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Connie Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	24d	1	0.01mi
2 William Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,900	$1.11	21d	1	0.55mi
2 William Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,850	$1.08	15d	1	0.55mi
2 Felton Ln Unit 1241295P Bella Vista, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$2,815	$2.03	15d	1	0.90mi
9 N Cerney Ln Unit 1297034P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	3.0	2497	$2,340	$0.94	15d	1	1.05mi
15 Baywater Ln Unit 1221842P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1915	$5,167	$2.70	21d	1	1.05mi
5 Wreston Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	3.0	2290	$2,000	$0.87	14d	1	1.14mi
6 Erith Ln Unit 1512836P Bella Vista, AR	4.0	2.0	2077	$5,027	$2.42	14d	1	1.23mi
71 London Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,100	$1.41	24d	1	1.23mi
26 Purfleet Dr Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,575	$1.23	15d	1	1.33mi
4 Kemble Cir Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1376	$1,850	$1.34	24d	1	1.34mi
9 Purfleet Dr Unit 1366492P Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.0	1625	$3,392	$2.09	14d	1	1.36mi
4 Tilbury Ln Bella Vista, AR	3.0	2.5	1742	$1,850	$1.06	14d	1	1.39mi
1 Yarty Ln Bella Vista, AR	2.0	2.0	1815	$2,300	$1.27	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $298,000 Active 161 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $298,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $298,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $298,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $298,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $298,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,000 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $298,000 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-04-28
    price $298,000
14. 2026-02-19
    price $300,000
15. 2026-01-05
    listed $310,000 Active
16. 2025-08-11
    price $315,000
17. 2018-09-05
    soldstatus $91,500
18. 2018-08-31
    soldstatus $91,500 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Perfect Investment Property! Affordable, 2 level WINTER LAKE VIEW Townhome. This unit has 2 living areas. The 1st level has a bedroom and full bath, kitchen, laundry room and nice hardwood floors. Both levels have private covered balconies. The bottom level has large separate living area with full bath. The bedroom downstairs has a large closet, but no window. New roof in 2017. The home needs paint, carpet and a little updating. The unit has plenty of storage areas. It is conveniently located to Hwy 71 B.

19. 2018-01-17
    listed $99,000 511-char remark

    Show marketing remark (511 chars)

    Perfect Investment Property! Affordable, 2 level WINTER LAKE VIEW Townhome. This unit has 2 living areas. The 1st level has a bedroom and full bath, kitchen, laundry room and nice hardwood floors. Both levels have private covered balconies. The bottom level has large separate living area with full bath. The bedroom downstairs has a large closet, but no window. New roof in 2017. The home needs paint, carpet and a little updating. The unit has plenty of storage areas. It is conveniently located to Hwy 71 B.

20. 2000-09-19
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,810 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,907 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$1,810
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,239
• − Management: −$2,239
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$5,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bentonville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503060
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,721
• Composite: 51.85/100
• National rank: #1661
• State rank: #3 of 238 in AR

Livability — Bella Vista

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #11129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bella Vista, AR
• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 31,638
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 17,288
• Household income: $82,447
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 107.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.53%
• Current HPI: 304.946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+325.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $298,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $300,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $310,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $315,000 NWARMLS
• 2018-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $91,500 Public Records
• 2018-08-31 Sold (MLS) $91,500 NWARMLS
• 2018-01-17 Listed $99,000 NWARMLS
• 2000-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,810 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.