653 Old Snow Hill Rd · Ayden, NC 28513

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2002 0.45 ac lot Est $200k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this recently renovated 3 bedroom double wide with new roof, HVAC, and brick underpinning and steps! Freshly painted walls, new carpet and lvp flooring make this home feel brand new and ready to welcome you home! Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New carpet
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• RENOVATED HOUSE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW VANITIES
• NEW CARPET
• LVP THROUGHOUT
• FRESH PAINT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-332/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (23.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.8% in Ayden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in NC, #3,656 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D, commute F.
• Pitt County Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #100 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ayden Elementary (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 638 students, 100% FRL); Ayden Middle (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #270 of 475 statewide, top 57%, 388 students, 99% FRL); Ayden-Grifton High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #414 of 535 statewide, top 79%, 659 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1,300 units permitted in Pitt County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,613 (23.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.63%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,920
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
653 Old Snow Hill Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	1mo	$189,000	$105	90
773 Old Snow Hill Rd	0.29mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,944 (+2%)	17mo	$107,000	$55	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-32,449
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,774
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28513

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,202/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,481

Max offer price $184,116

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   price $189,000
3. 2026-03-24
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2023-05-03
   soldstatus $154,650 Closed 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Come check out this recently renovated 3 bedroom double wide with new roof, HVAC, and brick underpinning and steps! Freshly painted walls, new carpet and lvp flooring make this home feel brand new and ready to welcome you home! Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long!

5. 2023-05-03
   soldstatus $155,000

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Come check out this recently renovated 3 bedroom double wide with new roof, HVAC, and brick underpinning and steps! Freshly painted walls, new carpet and lvp flooring make this home feel brand new and ready to welcome you home! Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long!

6. 2023-03-31
   status Pending 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Come check out this recently renovated 3 bedroom double wide with new roof, HVAC, and brick underpinning and steps! Freshly painted walls, new carpet and lvp flooring make this home feel brand new and ready to welcome you home! Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long!

7. 2023-03-17
   listed $150,000 Active 288-char remark

   Show marketing remark (288 chars)

   Come check out this recently renovated 3 bedroom double wide with new roof, HVAC, and brick underpinning and steps! Freshly painted walls, new carpet and lvp flooring make this home feel brand new and ready to welcome you home! Schedule your showing today as this one will not last long!

8. 2017-08-03
   soldstatus $50,000 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   This Property is: SOLD AS IS: Buyer need prequalification letter or proof of funds with offer. This home qualifies for Freddie Mac's First Look Program. The purchaser does not need to be a first time homebuyer to be eligible provided, however, that they are buying the home as their residence. The program start Monday, June 12, 2017 and will expire on Saturday, July 1,2017.

9. 2017-06-12
   listed $54,900 376-char remark

   Show marketing remark (376 chars)

   This Property is: SOLD AS IS: Buyer need prequalification letter or proof of funds with offer. This home qualifies for Freddie Mac's First Look Program. The purchaser does not need to be a first time homebuyer to be eligible provided, however, that they are buying the home as their residence. The program start Monday, June 12, 2017 and will expire on Saturday, July 1,2017.

10. 2002-01-01
    soldstatus $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,202 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,550 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$347/yr (+$29/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$1,202
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$3,656
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$877
• After-tax cash flow: $546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pitt County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700012
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,631
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4877
• State rank: #100 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ayden

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #3656

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,754

Population outlook (Pitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,585 people
• By 2030: 203,756 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 220,807 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 236,614 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 275,940 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 300,058 · +54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitt

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.0) · D 52.5% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: 6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.0 2020: D+9.4 2016: D+7.4 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.36%
• Current HPI: 190.2552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+980.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $189,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $199,000 Hive MLS
• 2023-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-03 Sold (MLS) $154,650 Hive MLS
• 2023-03-31 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $150,000 Hive MLS
• 2017-08-03 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Hive MLS
• 2017-06-12 Listed $54,900 Hive MLS
• 2002-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $17,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,202 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.