3007 Pineberry Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$395,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $176/sqft · 12% below area Est $450k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious single-story home features a formal dining room with elegant arched doorways, followed by an open layout among the Great Room, kitchen and breakfast nook, with access to a lanai. In addition to the owner's suite, are three secondary bedrooms and a three-car garage for versatile needs. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families.

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Formal dining room
• Arched doorways

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• ARCHED DOORWAYS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• GREAT ROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• ACCESS TO A LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $396k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $363k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $318k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $318k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2703 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $317,878 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.44%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $449,500
• List price: $395,999
• Delta: -11.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17835 Cane Patch Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,244 (0%)	0mo	$416,597	$186	94
3404 Night Star Ter	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+1%)	1mo	$416,000	$184	86
3309 Night Star Ter	0.05mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,201 (-2%)	1mo	$380,000	$173	85
17912 Garden Grove Way	0.21mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,201 (-2%)	0mo	$375,597	$171	78
3313 Night Star Ter	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,032 (-9%)	0mo	$373,597	$184	77
3011 Pineberry Xing	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,444 (+9%)	1mo	$449,000	$184	75
3431 Night Star Ter	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,198 (-2%)	2mo	$395,000	$180	75
17917 Garden Grove Way	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,032 (-9%)	0mo	$465,000	$229	71
17827 Garden Grove Way	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,032 (-9%)	2mo	$365,000	$180	69
17823 Garden Grove Way	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,529 (+13%)	0mo	$405,363	$160	65
3813 Ambersweet Xing	0.40mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (-6%)	2mo	$345,000	$163	63
17903 Haden Cv	0.42mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,112 (-6%)	2mo	$335,000	$159	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-87,794
• Equity at exit: $59,045

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-130,744
• Equity at exit: $34,239

Cash invested: $110,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 50 active · 30 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.6 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $394,494 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2703
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,179 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,077
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$495 /mo · $5,940/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$668
• Net cashflow: $-225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,464

Max offer price $363,380

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-89	+0% $-225	+5% $-362	+10% $-499
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-351	+0% $-225	+5% $-100	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-125	base $-225	+0.5pp $-328	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,000
• Closing costs: $11,880
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2726 Greenleaf Ter Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1651	$2,200	$1.33	72d	1	0.96mi
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	72d	1	1.20mi
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	52d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $395,999 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $395,999 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   remarks 594-char remark
4. 2026-06-18
   listed $395,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,182
• − Property taxes: −$5,940
• − Insurance: −$1,980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,052
• − Management: −$3,052
• − Depreciation: −$11,520
• Taxable loss: −$9,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This spacious single-story home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value-add improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Gene Witt Elementary School A+ FL #65/2,144 Nat'l #766/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B