1456 E Philadelphia #16 · Ontario, CA 91761

$100,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1981 1,248 sqft lot Est $125k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT 2 BEDROOMS, 2 BATH MOBILE HOME THAT SITS IN THE BEAUTIFUL 55 AND OVER PARK OF ONTARIO. MRS CLEAN LIVES HERE. CEILING FANS, VAULTED CEILINGS, BACKSPLASH IN KITCHEN, LARGE MASTER, AND BATH. THIS PARK HAS MANY AMENITIES! CLUB HOUSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF REMODELING. THERE WILL BE BOCCI COURTS. CAN HAVE A SMALL BACKYARD.

Key facts

• 1,248 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1981

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include park and dog park
• Financial info: Land lease: $1,350 monthly; Land lease community — manager approval required; Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community amenities include pool, pickleball, and dog park; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Tandem covered parking; Carport; Located in Rancho Ontario park
• Security: Card/Code access; Gated community with attendant
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home model: Kaufman Broad; Mobile home remains on site (12' x 52'); Updated/remodeled condition; Entry on first level
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Community pool; Front yard

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating
• Interior features: Gated community with attendant and card/code access; One-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Private laundry in an individual room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 2.7% in Ontario — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#435 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Ontario-Montclair (urban): math 35% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,400 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 314 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.35%
• DSCR: 3.91
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 41	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$161,000	$129	99
1456 E Philadelphia St #108	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	10mo	$125,000	$100	92
1456 E Philadelphia Street Spc 116	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	19mo	$102,750	$82	84
1456 E Philadelphia St Spc 412	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	0mo	$95,000	$82	81
1456 E Philadelphia St #315	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	18mo	$170,000	$136	80
1456 Philadelphia #398	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	23mo	$95,000	$79	71
1456 E Philadelphia #2	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+14%)	3mo	$187,000	$131	69
1456 E Philadelphia St #62	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	23mo	$40,000	$30	65
1456 E Philadelphia St #11	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$185,000	$138	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.83×
• Total profit: $79,248
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.69×
• Total profit: $187,303
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91761

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,805 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 E Philadelphia St Ontario, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	904	$3,207	$3.55	1d	12	0.47mi
1056 E Philadelphia St Ontario, CA	1.0	1.0	688	$2,465	$3.58	1d	1	0.55mi
2432 S Garfield Pl Ontario, CA	3.0	2.0	1118	$3,150	$2.82	1d	1	0.66mi
2042 S Bon View Ave Unit C Ontario, CA	2.0	2.5	1364	$2,700	$1.98	1d	1	0.85mi
1900 S Campus Ave Ontario, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	662	$2,179	$3.29	1d	10	1.15mi
629 E Madeleine Privado Ontario, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,350	$2.29	43d	1	1.29mi
629 E Madeleine Privado Ontario, CA	3.0	2.5	1465	$3,250	$2.22	22d	1	1.29mi
619 E Riverside Dr Ontario, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	866	$2,295	$2.65	3d	5	1.43mi
551 E Riverside Dr Ontario, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$2,665	$3.41	3d	12	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $100,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 23 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,693
• − Management: −$2,693
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $17,764
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,263
• After-tax cash flow: $14,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ontario-Montclair
• NCES district ID: 0628470
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,668
• Composite: 36.57/100
• National rank: #9282
• State rank: #731 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ontario

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #14949

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ontario, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 183,440
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,935
• Household income: $100,578
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1853.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 23% White 15% Asian 9% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 59%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 41% Chinese 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.91%
• Current HPI: 400.5674
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+33.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $100,000 CRMLS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (MLS) $84,900 CRMLS
• 2022-05-23 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2022-05-02 Pending — CRMLS
• 2022-04-18 Listed $84,900 CRMLS
• 2021-01-11 Sold (MLS) $65,000 CRMLS
• 2020-12-26 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-11-17 Listed $74,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $125 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.