9960 164th Rd · New York, NY 11414

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 656 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1925 1,600 sqft lot Est $309k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single-family home in Howard Beach featuring 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, situated on a 20x80 lot. Property is being sold as-is, sight unseen, with no interior access, and will require repair. This is a strong opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a value-add project or development potential make it well-suited for those looking to renovate or rebuild. Located on a quiet residential block close to neighborhood shopping, schools, parks, and transportation options, the property offers convenience and long-term upside. Buyers are responsible for their own due diligence.

Key facts

• 1,600 sq ft lot
• Built 1925
• Listed 59 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No carport; No designated parking features listed
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Described as fixer condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedroom count not specified separately)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Crawl space (no basement)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $204k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 227 Louis Armstrong (math 52% / reading 69%, grade B+, #153 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 1,528 students, 68% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 260 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $210k implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,603 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.49%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $308,976
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9957 164th Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0	736 (+12%)	5mo	$346,620	$471	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,518
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $23,850
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11414

• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,679 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,445/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $441	+0% $381	+5% $322	+10% $262
Rent	-10% $170	-5% $275	+0% $381	+5% $487	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $435	base $381	+0.5pp $327	+1.0pp $271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $209,900
3. 2026-03-20
   listed $219,900 Active
4. 2024-05-08
   historical
5. 2023-05-08
   listed $250,000 Active
6. 2020-03-27
   status Pending
7. 2020-01-31
   historical
8. 2019-12-04
   listed $345,000 New
9. 2018-08-13
   historical
10. 2018-08-13
    historical
11. 2018-07-18
    listed $159,000 New
12. 2013-06-14
    historical
13. 2012-05-14
    listed $215,000
14. 1995-05-24
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,445 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,496 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,051/yr (+$88/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,148
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,445
• − Insurance: −$6,168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,572
• − Management: −$2,572
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable income: $1,527
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$366
• After-tax cash flow: $4,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Queens County · 1,914,869 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,308
• Household income: $95,051
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 985.0

Population outlook (Queens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,546,320 people
• By 2030: 2,643,059 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 2,815,563 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 2,944,423 · +15.6%
• By 2075: 3,123,338 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 3,098,688 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 14% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Queens

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.6) · D 62.3% · R 37.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 50.8pp · 2024: 24.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.6 2020: D+45.2 2016: D+53.4 2012: D+58.5 2008: D+50.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.02%
• Current HPI: 206.6334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+356.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $209,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $219,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Listed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-04 Listed $345,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-13 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Listed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-06-14 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-14 Listed $215,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,445 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.