11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr · Magnolia, TX 77354

$238,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $144/sqft · 10% below area Est $266k · 10% under $33/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 29 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.3% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $235,405 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,566
• List price: $238,990
• Delta: -10.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11716 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,655 (0%)	1mo	$238,990	$144	99
11987 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$218,140	$136	94
11998 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-3%)	1mo	$232,040	$144	81
11708 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,749 (+6%)	1mo	$279,990	$160	80
11681 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	0mo	$266,990	$163	77
11688 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	1mo	$262,490	$161	73
11677 Lazy Oak Creek Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	0mo	$256,990	$163	71
12039 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-14%)	0mo	$223,590	$158	70
11986 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-14%)	1mo	$222,440	$157	69
11995 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-14%)	1mo	$215,340	$152	57
11990 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-15%)	1mo	$224,990	$160	57
12010 Noble Wood Village Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (-15%)	1mo	$213,040	$151	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $137,829
• Equity at exit: $215,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $383,548
• Equity at exit: $464,305

Cash invested: $66,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,132

Max offer price $238,990

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $301	+0% $219	+5% $136	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $124	+0% $219	+5% $314	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $280	base $219	+0.5pp $157	+1.0pp $94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,748
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	44d	1	0.12mi
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	44d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-30
   price $238,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-25
   price $258,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-06
   listed $269,990 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-04-06
   historical

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-01-23
   price $269,990
7. 2025-12-29
   price $284,990
8. 2025-11-28
   price $290,390
9. 2025-11-24
   price $293,390
10. 2025-11-18
    price $298,990
11. 2025-11-18
    listed $336,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,914
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,387
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$6,952
• Taxable loss: −$1,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $2,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern layout and well-maintained interior. It has potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Resale Replace any worn-out fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and improves the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Replace any worn-out fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and improves the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $238,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $284,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $290,390 HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $293,390 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $298,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $336,990 HARMLS