809 Avenue E · Abernathy, TX 79311

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 3,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1951 0.62 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 27,000 sq ft corner lot. The property features a 2-car garage and a versatile addition that can be used as a man cave, she-shed, hobby room, or extra living space. a 1/2 bath and kitchenette. A small detached ADU is also included and offers additional potential with renovation. The main house has a new roof, providing peace of mind for the next owner. With ample space and endless possibilities, this property is ideal for buyers looking to customize, invest, or expand. A rare opportunity with room to grow!

Key facts

• Detached adu
• Versatile addition
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• VERSATILE ADDITION
• DETACHED ADU
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in TX, #3,080 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Abernathy ISD (town): math 47% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #242 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $111,010
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $310,404
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79311

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,819/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 2nd Pl Abernathy, TX	4.0	2.0	2139	$1,899	$0.89	13d	1	0.65mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-01-17
    listed $165,000 Active 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (572 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home situated on a spacious 27,000 sq ft corner lot. The property features a 2-car garage and a versatile addition that can be used as a man cave, she-shed, hobby room, or extra living space. a 1/2 bath and kitchenette. A small detached ADU is also included and offers additional potential with renovation. The main house has a new roof, providing peace of mind for the next owner. With ample space and endless possibilities, this property is ideal for buyers looking to customize, invest, or expand. A rare opportunity with room to grow!

15. 2001-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,819 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$201/yr (+$17/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,819
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,456
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$349
• After-tax cash flow: $3,626/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abernathy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807410
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,776
• Composite: 39.87/100
• National rank: #3862
• State rank: #242 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abernathy

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #3080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abernathy, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,533

Population outlook (Hale County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,851 people
• By 2030: 29,158 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 25,681 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 22,420 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 15,857 · -48.6%
• By 2100: 10,500 · -66.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 8% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hale

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.0) · D 20.5% · R 78.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -58.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.0 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+47.8 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.13%
• Current HPI: 244.4163
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $165,000 LARMLS
• 2001-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,819 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.