Plan 1242 Plan · Fresno, TX 77545

$238,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 314 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Front porch
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT

🏗️ New construction. The $238,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,026.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 35% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-35 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 314 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,315 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 314 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,026
• List price: $238,995
• Delta: -13.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2826 Lyra Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-1%)	12mo	$259,995	$211	75
1514 Grand Olympia Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	9mo	$294,995	$217	64
3327 Bremerton Falls Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+4%)	4mo	$235,000	$181	60
1519 Grand Olympia Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+10%)	12mo	$282,608	$208	59
3035 Kalimera Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	24mo	$292,789	$215	57
3323 Aegean Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+11%)	4mo	$247,400	$180	48
2630 Argos Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+11%)	20mo	$220,000	$160	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-53,875
• Equity at exit: $54,050

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-79,212
• Equity at exit: $46,426

Cash invested: $77,567 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $274,995 ($195/sqft)
• Median days on market: 71 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +14.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,155/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,423

Max offer price $243,506

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-40	-5% $-136	+0% $-232	+5% $-327	+10% $-423
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-316	+0% $-232	+5% $-148	+10% $-63
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-161	base $-232	+0.5pp $-303	+1.0pp $-376

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,256
• Closing costs: $8,311
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,462	$2.48	0d	46	0.72mi
1151 Memorial Bend Blvd Unit 230 Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,979	$1.61	0d	1	1.06mi
1119 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	2.0	2.0	1226	$1,164	$0.95	19d	1	1.06mi
3311 Jib Ct Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,700	$1.32	12d	1	1.31mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,601	$1.25	57d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $238,995 Active 314 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $238,995 Active 313 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $238,995 Active 312 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $238,995 Active 311 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $238,995 Active 310 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $238,995 Active 309 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $238,995 Active 308 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $238,995 Active 307 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $238,995 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $238,995 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $238,995 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $238,995 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $238,995 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $238,995 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $238,995 Active 295 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $238,995 Active 294 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $238,995 Active 290 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $238,995 Active 289 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $238,995 Active 288 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $238,995 Active 287 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $238,995 Active 286 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $238,995 Active 284 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $238,995 Active 283 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $238,995 Active 282 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $238,995 Active 281 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $238,995 Active 280 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $238,995 Active 279 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $238,995 Active 278 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $238,995 Active 277 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $238,995 Active 276 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $238,995 Active 275 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $238,995 Active 274 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $238,995 Active 273 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $238,995 Active 272 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $248,995 Active 271 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $248,995 Active 270 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $248,995 Active 269 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $248,995 Active 268 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $248,995 Active 267 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $248,995 Active 265 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $248,995 Active 264 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $248,995 Active 263 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $248,995 Active 262 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $248,995 Active 259 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $248,995 Active 257 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $248,995 Active 256 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $248,995 Active 254 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $248,995 Active 252 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $248,995 Active 251 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    price $248,995 Active 250 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,562
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,518
• − Property taxes: −$4,155
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$8,059
• Taxable loss: −$7,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace low-E windows with newer, more energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 14/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridgemont Early Literacy Center Middle Christa Mcauliffe Middle F TX #1,583/1,662 Nat'l #12,767/14,009 High Fort Bend Co Alter

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $253,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $262,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $251,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $247,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $252,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $247,995 Zillow