Plan 1242 Plan · Fresno, TX 77545

$257,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,242 sqft · SingleFamily · 219 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

Key facts

• Extra storage space
• Front porch
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• FRONT PORCH
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAS RANGE
• SMART THERMOSTAT

🏗️ New construction. The $257,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.3% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#943 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blue Ridge El (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 263 students, 89% FRL); Christa Mcauliffe Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 835 students, 94% FRL); Willowridge H S (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,389 of 1,632 statewide, top 86%, 1,319 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 90% FRL vs 35% district-wide (55 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 16% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-33 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 219 days — a 12% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,035 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 219 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.42%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,259
• List price: $257,995
• Delta: -6.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2826 Lyra Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-1%)	9mo	$259,995	$211	78
1514 Grand Olympia Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	6mo	$294,995	$217	66
3327 Bremerton Falls Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+4%)	1mo	$235,000	$181	63
1519 Grand Olympia Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,360 (+10%)	8mo	$282,608	$208	62
3035 Kalimera Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	21mo	$292,789	$215	59
3011 Elassona Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	23mo	$292,696	$215	57
3323 Aegean Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+11%)	1mo	$247,400	$180	51
3303 Oaklawn Place Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+4%)	24mo	$275,000	$212	46
2630 Argos Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+11%)	17mo	$220,000	$160	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.98% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-34,503
• Equity at exit: $54,095

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,444
• Equity at exit: $46,465

Cash invested: $77,633 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77545

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,542 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,454
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,159/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425

Max offer price $277,259

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $188	+0% $92	+5% $-4	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-9	+0% $92	+5% $192	+10% $293
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $162	base $92	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,315
• Closing costs: $8,318
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	0d	118	0.72mi
3235 Becker Glen St Fresno, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,786	$1.39	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $257,995 Active 219 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $257,995 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $257,995 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $257,995 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $257,995 Active 213 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $257,995 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $257,995 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $257,995 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $255,995 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $255,995 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $255,995 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $255,995 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $255,995 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-05-16
    price $255,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

15. 2026-05-10
    price $253,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

16. 2026-05-09
    price $262,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

17. 2026-04-18
    price $251,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

18. 2026-04-11
    price $249,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

19. 2026-03-28
    price $247,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

20. 2026-03-07
    price $245,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

21. 2026-01-22
    price $242,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

22. 2025-11-18
    price $252,995 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

23. 2025-11-14
    listed $247,995 Active 417-char remark

    Show marketing remark (417 chars)

    * Eat-in kitchen * Extra storage space * Front porch * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Gas range * 5-panel interior doors * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Splash pad * Community park * Playground * Near local schools * Commuter-friendly location * Great shopping nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,499
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,531
• − Property taxes: −$4,159
• − Insurance: −$1,386
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,440
• − Management: −$2,440
• − Depreciation: −$8,066
• Taxable loss: −$3,523
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$845
• After-tax cash flow: $1,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace low-E windows with newer, more energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace low-E windows with newer, more energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Enhances safety and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #16815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 26,236
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,236
• Household income: $94,474
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 360.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% White 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.3921
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+3.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $253,995 Zillow
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $262,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $251,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $249,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $247,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $242,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $252,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $247,995 Zillow