7580 Wildflower · Abilene, TX 79602

$304,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 8,581 sqft lot Est $304k · at est. $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Build around $300k in the Wylie School District!!! Corner Lot. Builder to install sod and irrigation in the front and backyard. Builder will install a 6' fence. Builder will install hardware to kitchen and bathroom cabinets. Granite Countertops. LVP flooring throughout. Tiled shower surround. Estimated Completion Date is Mid June

Key facts

• 8,581 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $300k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wylie East El (math 58% / reading 58%, grade C+, #480 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 789 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $85k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $300,326 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.38%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7580 Wildflower	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	100
7584 Wildflower	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	0mo	$304,900	$200	99
7588 Wildflower	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,522 (0%)	1mo	$304,900	$200	98
7654 Hudson Way	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,577 (+4%)	1mo	$335,000	$212	80
132 Lake Ridge Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+9%)	1mo	$350,000	$211	70
7685 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+8%)	0mo	$325,000	$197	70
7689 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	69
7693 Lake Ridge Pkwy	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+8%)	0mo	$325,000	$197	69
331 Sophia Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,632 (+7%)	0mo	$329,000	$202	65
149 Spring Park Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,714 (+13%)	1mo	$289,000	$169	63
250 Martis Way	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+8%)	1mo	$325,000	$197	58
7321 Wildflower Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,737 (+14%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-13,196
• Equity at exit: $45,462

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $88,563
• Equity at exit: $26,362

Cash invested: $85,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,088 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,574/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,694

Max offer price $304,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,225
• Closing costs: $9,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7709 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,200	$2.13	44d	1	0.08mi
7717 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$3,375	$2.25	11d	1	0.09mi
7625 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	4.0	3.0	1800	$3,300	$1.83	4d	1	0.13mi
7627 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1598	$8,900	$5.57	13d	1	0.15mi
7949 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.15mi
7646 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	21d	1	0.19mi
7650 Hudson Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$3,295	$2.09	13d	1	0.20mi
385 Kristi Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.22mi
8001 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.27mi
385 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	3d	1	0.27mi
8009 Sawdust Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,995	$1.99	44d	1	0.27mi
409 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,895	$2.05	5d	1	0.35mi
405 Kristie Path Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$2,895	$2.01	7d	1	0.35mi
273 Martis Way Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1660	$3,200	$1.93	13d	1	0.43mi
331 Sophia Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1632	$3,195	$1.96	4d	1	0.47mi
7309 Wildflower Way Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$3,195	$2.02	24d	1	0.53mi
7328 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.58mi
7326 Mountain View Rd Unit 7328 Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$2,995	$2.02	11d	1	0.59mi
7319 Mountain View Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$4,000	$2.66	44d	1	0.59mi
349 Whiterock Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$6,000	$3.32	17d	1	0.80mi
250 Southlake Dr Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	2006	$3,400	$1.69	3d	1	0.81mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	7d	1	1.12mi
350 Miss Ellie Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,600	$1.84	3d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-11
   listed $304,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,079
• − Property taxes: −$4,574
• − Insurance: −$1,524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,964
• − Management: −$2,964
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$8,870
• Taxable loss: −$1,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$281
• After-tax cash flow: $4,018/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $304,900 NTREIS