139 Cochran Rd · Leesville, LA 71446

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,483 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 1984 2.00 ac lot $141/sqft · 28% below area Est $290k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 2 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road just off Belview Rd. This inviting home features a spacious living area with a stunning cathedral ceiling, exposed beams, and a large fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming focal point. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, stylish tile accents, and updated kitchen countertops. All kitchen appliances, along with the washer and dryer, will remain with the home -- making this property truly move-in ready. The generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of space to accommodate larger furniture with ease. Outside, the property is partially fenced, with the back half wooded to provide added privacy and a peaceful, natural setting.

Key facts

• Tile accents
• Large fireplace
• Cathedral ceiling

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILING
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• LARGE FIREPLACE
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• TILE ACCENTS
• UPDATED KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $175k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 7.3% in Leesville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#30 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Vernon Parish (rural): math 35% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #18 of 98 in LA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rosepine Elementary School (math 25% / reading 50%, grade F, #247 of 646 statewide, top 39%, 830 students, 55% FRL); Vernon Middle School (math 30% / reading 41%, grade F, #91 of 218 statewide, top 42%, 477 students, 60% FRL); Leesville High School (math 32% / reading 54%, grade F, #66 of 265 statewide, top 25%, 884 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Vernon Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vernon County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $209k implies a 364% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,778 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.95%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,593
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -27.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-38,420
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-14,097
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71446

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Rents YoY: 9.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,030/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,712

Max offer price $174,953

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-134	+0% $-193	+5% $-252	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-251	+0% $-193	+5% $-135	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-140	base $-193	+0.5pp $-247	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 2 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road just off Belview Rd. This inviting home features a spacious living area with a stunning cathedral ceiling, exposed beams, and a large fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming focal point. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, stylish tile accents, and updated kitchen countertops. All kitchen appliances, along with the washer and dryer, will remain with the home -- making this property truly move-in ready. The generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of space to accommodate larger furniture with ease. Outside, the property is partially fenced, with the back half wooded to provide added privacy and a peaceful, natural setting.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $209,000 Active 728-char remark

   Show marketing remark (728 chars)

   Beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on 2 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road just off Belview Rd. This inviting home features a spacious living area with a stunning cathedral ceiling, exposed beams, and a large fireplace that creates a warm and welcoming focal point. Recent updates include fresh interior paint, stylish tile accents, and updated kitchen countertops. All kitchen appliances, along with the washer and dryer, will remain with the home -- making this property truly move-in ready. The generously sized bedrooms offer plenty of space to accommodate larger furniture with ease. Outside, the property is partially fenced, with the back half wooded to provide added privacy and a peaceful, natural setting.

3. 2026-04-11
   historical $1,700
4. 2026-04-10
   price $209,000
5. 2026-03-17
   price $214,000
6. 2026-03-10
   listed $1,700
7. 2024-07-15
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2024-06-07
   historical $1,225
9. 2024-05-28
   price $179,900
10. 2024-05-22
    price $1,225
11. 2024-05-01
    price $1,350
12. 2024-05-01
    listed $1,375
13. 2024-04-30
    listed $185,000 Active
14. 2016-10-21
    soldstatus $45,000
15. 2008-10-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,613
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$2,030
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$6,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,456
• After-tax cash flow: $-857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vernon Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201830
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $44,822
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4674
• State rank: #18 of 98 in LA

Livability — Leesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #5046

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Vernon Parish · 21,275 people
• City population: 21,275
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• Population (ZIP): 21,275
• Household income: $55,925
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 659.0

Population outlook (Vernon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,401 people
• By 2030: 43,015 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 38,171 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 34,087 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 28,267 · -37.7%
• By 2100: 25,486 · -43.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Vernon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.9) · D 15.6% · R 83.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -67.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.9 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+57.5 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.06%
• Current HPI: 128.8849
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Metro: Fort Polk South, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+364.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — SWLAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $209,000 SWLAR
• 2026-04-11 Rental Removed $1,700 Avail
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $209,000 GFPAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $214,000 GFPAR
• 2026-03-10 Listed for Rent $1,700 Avail
• 2024-07-15 Sold (MLS) — GFPAR
• 2024-06-07 Rental Removed $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-28 Price Changed $179,900 GFPAR
• 2024-05-22 Price Changed $1,225 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $1,350 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-01 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-30 Listed $185,000 GFPAR
• 2016-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,030 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.