9650 Bahia Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$279,250

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Land · 154 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot $181/sqft · 10% above area Est $254k · 10% over ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• ARV discount +3.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Large 5 tiled shower
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• BLOCK HOME CONSTRUCTION
• KITCHEN AT FRONT OF HOME
• COVERED 8X20 COVERED PATIO
• LARGE 5 TILED SHOWER
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• TILE FLOORING IN ALL WET AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,742 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,089
• List price: $279,250
• Delta: 9.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $58,985
• Equity at exit: $174,359

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $176,765
• Equity at exit: $315,170

Cash invested: $78,190 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,464
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,075

Max offer price $236,321

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-85	-5% $-164	+0% $-243	+5% $-322	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-313	+0% $-243	+5% $-173	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-102	-0.5pp $-172	base $-243	+0.5pp $-315	+1.0pp $-389

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,812
• Closing costs: $8,378
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9649 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,595	$1.24	22d	1	0.01mi
9610 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,895	$1.17	22d	1	0.29mi
13 Pine Radial Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	22d	1	0.38mi
5 Cedar Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,750	$1.64	22d	1	0.52mi
43 Water Track Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1287	$1,799	$1.40	14d	1	0.57mi
7 Pine Run Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,500	$1.05	14d	1	0.64mi
446 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,425	$1.14	22d	1	0.72mi
455 Water Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,450	$1.14	14d	1	0.77mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	22d	1	0.89mi
478 Water Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,650	$1.34	22d	1	0.92mi
9337 Bahia Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,765	$1.26	14d	1	0.95mi
139 Pine Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,645	$1.18	14d	1	1.09mi
3 Pine Circle Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1674	$1,700	$1.02	22d	1	1.10mi
57 Pine Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	14d	1	1.25mi
9 Pine Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,725	$1.19	14d	1	1.25mi
2 Dogwood Drive Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1608	$2,099	$1.31	22d	1	1.26mi
708 Bahia Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	22d	1	1.34mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	22d	1	1.40mi
6 Cedar Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1477	$1,675	$1.13	22d	1	1.41mi
7184 Hemlock Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,675	$1.20	22d	1	1.46mi
619 Silver Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,495	$0.99	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $279,250 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

3. 2026-05-11
   price $312,250 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

4. 2026-04-16
   price $282,250 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

5. 2026-04-13
   price $312,250 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

6. 2026-03-09
   price $287,250 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

7. 2025-12-14
   listed $312,250 Active 1209-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1209 chars)

   READY NOW. Temp price drop valid on contract signed on or before 6/14/26, 5pm. Brand New. Block Home construction. Must see to appreciate, photos do not do justice to the layout and space of this home. Kitchen at front of home and opens into living room, GREAT for entertaining expanding your guest area out onto the covered 8x20 covered patio. Time to fire up that grill. You will love the additional height of the tray ceiling complete with crown molding in the master bedroom increasing the height. Large 5' tiled shower in the master bath in lieu of a garden tub, upgraded countertops throughout, stainless appliances, mini-blind insert in rear doors to covered patio. Tile flooring in all wet areas, Stylish Flat black plumbing fixtures, door hardware and 2 panel shaker style interior doors, plumbing. Plus, curb appeal! All this on a generous lot. TAEXX in-wall pest control system. Builder Warranty! Closing costs paid when using Seller Approved lenders. Elevation photo is rendering and used for illustration purposes only. INTERIOR PHOTOS are the same floorplan in different home just for reference of potential finished product. Colors and options WILL vary. Price subject to change without notice.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,616/yr (+$135/mo · 230.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,642
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,396
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,697
• − Management: −$1,697
• − Depreciation: −$8,124
• Taxable loss: −$8,049
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $279,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $312,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $282,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $312,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $287,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-14 Listed $312,250 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+17.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +173.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.