25388 White Oak Ln · Patton Village, TX 77372

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,272 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 10,092 sqft lot $118/sqft · 29% below area Est $211k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS GEM OR MAKE IT YOUR DREAM HOME! This 3 bed 2 bath located in quiet neighborhood a little TLC could make for a great investment. Open concept living with split floor plan. Vaulted ceilings, spacious lot with mature trees, covered garage port. Garage converted to a den adding square footage. Come see the potential opportunity!!!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1975

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Converted garage; Porte-cochere
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1975; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $150k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,750 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.18%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,676
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -28.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25388 White Oak Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,272 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$118	100
16921 Main St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-2%)	14mo	$199,900	$160	68
25732 Chestnut Ln	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,146 (-10%)	2mo	$189,500	$165	64
25760 Hickory Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-9%)	7mo	$239,900	$208	60
25755 Hickory Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+9%)	9mo	$224,900	$162	60
25772 Hickory Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,156 (-9%)	6mo	$234,900	$203	60
25721 John Wayne Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	4mo	$221,990	$158	48
25512 Roy Rogers Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+12%)	15mo	$221,990	$157	44
—	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+12%)	14mo	$325,000	$227	41
25737 John Wayne Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+12%)	10mo	$221,990	$157	41
25745 John Wayne Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	12mo	$221,990	$158	39
25761 John Wayne Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+12%)	13mo	$223,990	$158	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,760
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $23,394
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,198/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25625 Chestnut Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,675	$1.07	24d	1	0.24mi
25982 Stillbrook Ln Splendora, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,265	$1.16	13d	1	0.82mi
25687 Roy Rogers Ct Splendora, TX	4.0	3.0	1607	$1,895	$1.18	4d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $150,000 338-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $165,000 Active 338-char remark
3. 1990-04-12
   soldstatus $35,035

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,198 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$3,198
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,746
• − Management: −$1,746
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $1,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+328.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1990-04-12 Sold (Public Records) $35,035 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,198 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.