109 Cogshall St · Holly, MI 48442

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,434 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1897 0.58 ac lot Est $196k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vintage farmhouse opportunity in the heart of Holly! Situated on a spacious . 58-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of character and ready for your vision. Featuring a 2.5-car detached garage and plenty of room to grow, this property offers endless possibilities for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their dream home. Bring your ideas and imagination - with some updating, this farmhouse can truly shine. Conveniently located near downtown Holly shops, dining, and community events. Potential like this doesn't come around often!

Key facts

• Downtown holly
• Spacious lot
• Vintage farmhouse

Tags

• VINTAGE FARMHOUSE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• DOWNTOWN HOLLY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories; Ground-level entry with steps; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Fenced yard; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace in the living room; Full unfinished basement; Six total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.5% in Holly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#156 in MI, #3,930 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Holly Area School District (town): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #165 of 540 in MI (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $61k; list at $160k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.70%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,458
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 E Sherman St	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,337 (-7%)	12mo	$110,000	$82	69
813 Partridge Ct	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-12%)	1mo	$305,000	$242	67
409 Fenwick St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+1%)	18mo	$259,999	$180	66
428 Harden St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+12%)	7mo	$175,000	$109	55
4288 N Hill Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-2%)	19mo	$38,941	$28	52
810 Holly Bush Ct	0.70mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,500 (+5%)	4mo	$415,000	$277	49
433 N Saginaw St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-7%)	6mo	$250,000	$187	49
210 Legrande St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+3%)	10mo	$270,000	$182	47
202 Michigan St	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,534 (+7%)	19mo	$169,000	$110	41
307 N Saginaw St	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (+4%)	20mo	$205,000	$137	41
407 Oakland St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,327 (-8%)	16mo	$180,000	$136	40
109 2nd St	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,608 (+12%)	2mo	$130,000	$81	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,813
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $27,452
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48442

• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,959/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $407	+0% $362	+5% $316	+10% $271
Rent	-10% $210	-5% $286	+0% $362	+5% $437	+10% $513
Rate	-1.0pp $442	-0.5pp $402	base $362	+0.5pp $320	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
315 Crescent Ave Holly, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	25d	1	0.99mi
4261 Grange Hall Rd Holly, MI	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,284	$1.16	0d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $159,900 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
12. 2026-05-19
    listed $159,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Vintage farmhouse opportunity in the heart of Holly! Situated on a spacious . 58-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of character and ready for your vision. Featuring a 2.5-car detached garage and plenty of room to grow, this property offers endless possibilities for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their dream home. Bring your ideas and imagination - with some updating, this farmhouse can truly shine. Conveniently located near downtown Holly shops, dining, and community events. Potential like this doesn't come around often!

13. 2026-05-19
    listed $159,900 Active 562-char remark

    Show marketing remark (562 chars)

    Vintage farmhouse opportunity in the heart of Holly! Situated on a spacious . 58-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is full of character and ready for your vision. Featuring a 2.5-car detached garage and plenty of room to grow, this property offers endless possibilities for investors, renovators, or buyers looking to create their dream home. Bring your ideas and imagination - with some updating, this farmhouse can truly shine. Conveniently located near downtown Holly shops, dining, and community events. Potential like this doesn't come around often!

14. 2009-12-01
    soldstatus $61,000 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Turn Of The Century Home In The Village Of Holly At A Great Price! 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Full Basement And Detached 2 Car Garage. Homepath Available. Sold, as Is, Where Is. Lic Agent/Buyer No Commission. 1st-15 Days - Owner/Occ Only. .

15. 2009-12-01
    soldstatus $61,000

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Turn Of The Century Home In The Village Of Holly At A Great Price! 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Full Basement And Detached 2 Car Garage. Homepath Available. Sold, as Is, Where Is. Lic Agent/Buyer No Commission. 1st-15 Days - Owner/Occ Only. .

16. 2009-11-09
    historical
17. 2009-10-22
    listed $54,900 236-char remark

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Turn Of The Century Home In The Village Of Holly At A Great Price! 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Full Basement And Detached 2 Car Garage. Homepath Available. Sold, as Is, Where Is. Lic Agent/Buyer No Commission. 1st-15 Days - Owner/Occ Only. .

18. 2009-10-22
    listed $54,900

    Show marketing remark (236 chars)

    Turn Of The Century Home In The Village Of Holly At A Great Price! 3 Bedrooms, 1.5 Baths, Full Basement And Detached 2 Car Garage. Homepath Available. Sold, as Is, Where Is. Lic Agent/Buyer No Commission. 1st-15 Days - Owner/Occ Only. .

19. 1997-06-03
    soldstatus $122,000
20. 1997-05-12
    soldstatus $122,000
21. 1997-05-12
    soldstatus $122,000
22. 1997-05-12
    soldstatus $122,000
23. 1997-04-04
    historical
24. 1996-08-09
    listed $119,900
25. 1996-08-09
    listed $119,900
26. 1996-08-08
    listed $119,900
27. 1993-11-15
    soldstatus $90,000
28. 1991-05-21
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,959 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,959
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $1,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holly Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2618450
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,137
• Composite: 37.1/100
• National rank: #4496
• State rank: #165 of 540 in MI

Livability — Holly

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #3930

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly, MI
• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• City population: 22,788
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 22,788
• Household income: $86,575
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.30%
• Current HPI: 227.7078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+166.5% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-12-01 Sold (MLS) $61,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-12-01 Sold (MLS) $61,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-11-09 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-10-22 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-10-22 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 1997-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $122,000 Public Records
• 1997-05-12 Sold (MLS) $122,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-05-12 Sold (MLS) $122,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1997-05-12 Sold (MLS) $122,000 REALCOMP
• 1997-04-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-08-09 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-08-09 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 1996-08-08 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 1993-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1991-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,959 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.