11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #105 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 510 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1987 Average condition $25/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.8

Listing remarks MLS

1987 Cavco 2 bedroom 1.75 bath home. This home is fully furnished and being sold as is. There are no known issues with the mechanics of the home. Some updates and minor repairs are needed. It has a large living room, spacious kitchen with breakfast bar, and new faucets and plumbing under the sink. New vanity in the main bath, step in shower, new toilet and updated flooring. The main bedroom is spacious. The roof is 2 years old. HVAC is serviced regularly. Drapes do not stay. The large laundry room can be used as an office, hobby or craft area. There are 3 storage areas/sheds on the property. Driveway has room for 2 vehicles.

Key facts

• New vanity
• New faucets
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• NEW FAUCETS
• NEW VANITY
• STEP IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.9% vs local median 3.2% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 104 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $347 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $71 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 510 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (53%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 510 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.78%
• DSCR: 4.91
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,995
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -50.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	4mo	$120,000	$78	93
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	8mo	$122,000	$73	81
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,534 (-2%)	8mo	$73,500	$48	81
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #254	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,664 (+6%)	0mo	$57,000	$34	80
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #132	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+11%)	2mo	$151,800	$87	75
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	5mo	$80,000	$55	75
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #204	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$41,500	$31	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	8mo	$112,000	$83	65
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #20	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (+9%)	9mo	$50,000	$29	63
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-14%)	12mo	$75,000	$55	62
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-7%)	11mo	$74,000	$51	59
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$64,000	$48	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $47,183
• Equity at exit: $11,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 87.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $98,138
• Equity at exit: $14,638

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.1 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $87,250 ($62/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -18.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,384 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $845	-5% $831	+0% $817	+5% $803	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $708	-5% $763	+0% $817	+5% $872	+10% $927
Rate	-1.0pp $837	-0.5pp $827	base $817	+0.5pp $807	+1.0pp $796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11408 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,768	$1.29	19d	1	0.23mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	139d	1	0.29mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	70d	1	0.30mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	27d	1	0.30mi
16723 N 113th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,895	$1.39	7d	1	0.35mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,895	$1.39	44d	1	0.36mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	18d	1	0.36mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	2d	1	0.36mi
11335 W Crestbrook Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,705	$1.51	61d	1	0.42mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	139d	1	0.62mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,899	$1.61	5d	1	0.69mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,649	$1.53	5d	1	0.69mi
11548 W Pronghorn Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1563	$1,900	$1.22	0d	1	0.70mi
15216 N B Ct El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,795	$1.59	5d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,750	$1.62	10d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	97d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	108d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,828	$1.70	79d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,818	$1.69	19d	1	0.76mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,837	$1.70	94d	1	0.76mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	120d	1	0.80mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	101d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	120d	1	0.82mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,795	$1.07	6d	1	0.83mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	120d	1	0.83mi
17716 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,990	$1.08	54d	1	0.88mi
11762 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	10d	1	0.98mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,649	$1.26	56d	2	1.05mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1267	$1,772	$1.40	0d	11	1.22mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	43d	14	1.22mi
11476 W Madisen Ellise Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,070	$1.59	139d	1	1.22mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$1,921	$2.05	0d	1	1.35mi
11538 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1895	$1,795	$0.95	24d	1	1.35mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	112d	1	1.49mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	94d	1	1.49mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,800	$1.17	19d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	94d	1	1.49mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	119d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $39,900 Active 510 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $39,900 Active 509 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $39,900 Active 508 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 507 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $39,900 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 505 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 504 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 503 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 502 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $39,900 Active 501 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $39,900 Active 500 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $39,900 Active 499 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $39,900 Active 498 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $39,900 Active 497 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 491 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 490 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 489 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 486 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 485 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $39,900 Active 484 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $39,900 Active 483 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $39,900 Active 482 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $39,900 Active 481 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $39,900 Active 480 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $39,900 Active 479 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $39,900 Active 478 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $39,900 Active 477 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $39,900 Active 476 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $39,900 Active 475 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $39,900 Active 474 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    price $39,900 Active 473 DOM
32. 2026-08-18
    days on market $49,900 Active 473 DOM
33. 2026-08-17
    days on market $49,900 Active 472 DOM
34. 2026-08-16
    days on market $49,900 Active 471 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    days on market $49,900 Active 470 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $49,900 Active 469 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $49,900 Active 468 DOM
38. 2026-08-12
    days on market $49,900 Active 467 DOM
39. 2026-08-11
    days on market $49,900 Active 466 DOM
40. 2026-08-10
    days on market $49,900 Active 465 DOM
41. 2026-08-09
    days on market $49,900 Active 464 DOM
42. 2026-08-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 463 DOM
43. 2026-08-06
    days on market $49,900 Active 461 DOM
44. 2026-08-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 460 DOM
45. 2026-08-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 459 DOM
46. 2026-08-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 458 DOM
47. 2026-07-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 455 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 453 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $49,900 Active 452 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $49,900 Active 450 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,752
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,341
• After-tax cash flow: $7,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,840–$23,520 screening

This mobile home is in average condition with some cosmetic updates needed. It has a spacious layout and is fully furnished, making it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — paint appears worn
• Minor curtains — curtains

Value-add opportunities

• Resale painting — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale new curtains — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — improves tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thompson Ranch Elementary F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-41.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $49,900 ARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $59,999 ARMLS
• 2025-11-12 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Sold (MLS) — ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2025-03-30 Price Changed $69,999 ARMLS
• 2025-01-31 Listed $85,000 ARMLS