194 Mesquite · Cedar Point, TX 77351

$134,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,820 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2002 8,571 sqft lot $74/sqft · 13% below area Est $155k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This property offers a quiet setting with easy access to town, schools, shopping, and major highways. Whether you are looking for a primary residence, investment property, or affordable housing option, this property has strong potential. Spacious lot with room to enjoy outdoor living, future improvements, or additional storage. Conveniently located while still offering a more relaxed country-style atmosphere.

Key facts

• Easy access to town
• Quiet setting
• Outdoor living

Tags

• QUIET SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO TOWN
• OUTDOOR LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,820; Lot size approximately 8,571 square feet
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Part of Cedar Point POA

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not specified
• Security: Security details not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002; Entry level not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen details not specified
• Bedrooms: Total bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Flooring details not specified
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry and utility details not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $438 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.8% in Cedar Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,509 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Onalaska Jr/Sr High (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 527 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10293% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,949 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.91%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,103
• List price: $134,999
• Delta: -12.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
326 Plum Tree	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-8%)	8mo	$169,900	$101	77
651 Cedar Point Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,877 (+3%)	1mo	$144,000	$77	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,019
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $41,152
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $438

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $134,999

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
236 Bluebonnet Livingston, TX	4.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	13d	1	0.32mi
164 Red Clover Livingston, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	11d	1	0.33mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $134,999 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,999 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,999 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,999 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,999 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,999 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,999 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $134,999 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $134,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $134,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,999 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,999 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,999 Active 22 DOM
18. 2026-05-08
    listed $134,999 Active 412-char remark
19. 2019-03-05
    soldstatus
20. 2002-10-09
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,468 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,003/yr (+$84/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,468
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$784
• After-tax cash flow: $4,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cedar Point

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1509
• US rank: #25794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cedar Point, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $1,299 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $134,999 HARMLS
• 2019-03-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,468 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.