3880 E Astro St · Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ 85615

$159,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,024 sqft · Land public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1994 7,206 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully REMODELED ''MOVE IN'' Ready home! 2BD 2BA home. BRIGHT & Open great room floorplan with brand new cabinets, quartz countertops, LVP flooring throughout, and Brand NEW windows. Brand new privacy fencing. For the NATURE enthusiasts this home is located at the base of the Huachuca Mountains for easy access to hiking, birding, trail running and more! Excellent location for a Vacation Rental. Furniture currently in the home conveys. MUST SEE home!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Quartz countertops
• Great room floorplan

Tags

• REMODELED
• GREAT ROOM FLOORPLAN
• NEW CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LVP FLOORING
• NEW WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: S Highway 92, west on Astro to address
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking
• Utilities: Propane; Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views; Dirt road surface
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood frame construction; Composition roof; Building area source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Natural desert front; Natural desert back; Wood fencing; County-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Pantry; Master bedroom with 3/4 bath; Dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $623 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 4.5% in Sierra Vista Southeast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#113 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Huachuca Mountain Elementary School (math 38% / reading 52%, grade D-, #334 of 1,109 statewide, top 30%, 416 students, 34% FRL); Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $160k implies a 789% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,353 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.48%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $13,760
• Equity at exit: $23,849

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $63,003
• Equity at exit: $13,830

Cash invested: $44,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85615

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $492/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $623

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,282

Max offer price $159,950

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $714	-5% $669	+0% $623	+5% $578	+10% $533
Rent	-10% $460	-5% $542	+0% $623	+5% $705	+10% $787
Rate	-1.0pp $704	-0.5pp $664	base $623	+0.5pp $582	+1.0pp $540

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,988
• Closing costs: $4,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,950 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,950 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,950 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,950 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,950 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,950 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,950 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,950 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,950 Active 60 DOM

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Beautifully REMODELED ''MOVE IN'' Ready home! 2BD 2BA home. BRIGHT & Open great room floorplan with brand new cabinets, quartz countertops, LVP flooring throughout, and Brand NEW windows. Brand new privacy fencing. For the NATURE enthusiasts this home is located at the base of the Huachuca Mountains for easy access to hiking, birding, trail running and more! Excellent location for a Vacation Rental. Furniture currently in the home conveys. MUST SEE home!

10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Beautifully REMODELED ''MOVE IN'' Ready home! 2BD 2BA home. BRIGHT & Open great room floorplan with brand new cabinets, quartz countertops, LVP flooring throughout, and Brand NEW windows. Brand new privacy fencing. For the NATURE enthusiasts this home is located at the base of the Huachuca Mountains for easy access to hiking, birding, trail running and more! Excellent location for a Vacation Rental. Furniture currently in the home conveys. MUST SEE home!

11. 2026-06-09
    listed $159,950 Active 59 DOM

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Beautifully REMODELED ''MOVE IN'' Ready home! 2BD 2BA home. BRIGHT & Open great room floorplan with brand new cabinets, quartz countertops, LVP flooring throughout, and Brand NEW windows. Brand new privacy fencing. For the NATURE enthusiasts this home is located at the base of the Huachuca Mountains for easy access to hiking, birding, trail running and more! Excellent location for a Vacation Rental. Furniture currently in the home conveys. MUST SEE home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $492 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,056 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 114.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 10 d/yr ≥96°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,960
• − Property taxes: −$492
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,988
• − Management: −$1,988
• − Depreciation: −$4,653
• Taxable income: $5,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $6,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista Southeast

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #15230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista Southeast, AZ
• City population: 14,154
• Population (ZIP): 9,713

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.58%
• Current HPI: 150.1273
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+759.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $159,950 ARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $159,950 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-01 Listed $169,500 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-03-21 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-12-03 Listed $135,500 MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $135,500 ARMLS
• 2024-11-10 Listed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2004-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 2003-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $18,601 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $492 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.