20202 River Ridge Dr · Porter, TX 77365

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 172 Days on market

Built 1981 Good condition 9,583 sqft lot $133/sqft · 14% below area Est $280k · 14% under ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful and cozy modern one-story home offering 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a spacious lot in Montgomery County. This single-level layout blends modern style with everyday comfort, featuring open, airy living areas that feel both inviting and functional. Set on an oversized lot with no restrictions, the property offers endless possibilities room for a garden, workshop, outdoor entertaining, or future expansion. The modern design creates a fresh, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining a cozy feel that truly feels like home. Enjoy the freedom, space, and flexibility rarely found together, all in a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities. Perfect for those seeking modern living, extra land, and no HOA restrictions.

Key facts

• Garden
• No restrictions
• One story home

Tags

• ONE STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO RESTRICTIONS
• GARDEN
• WORKSHOP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-588 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (35.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.4% in Porter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 34d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,860 (35.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,184
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -14.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26771 Cypress	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,696 (-6%)	0mo	$279,840	$165	82
26356 Jasper Park Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-1%)	2mo	$288,900	$162	66
19922 Park Mesa Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-1%)	4mo	$279,900	$157	64
26392 Jasper Park Ln	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-7%)	3mo	$284,900	$170	62
26159 Woodberry Park Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-7%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	62
26360 Jasper Park Ln	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-7%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	61
26155 Woodberry Park Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (+5%)	1mo	$294,900	$155	58
19910 Park Mesa Ln	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (+5%)	3mo	$289,900	$153	58
26211 Park Cove Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,678 (-7%)	3mo	$264,900	$158	56
19926 Park Mesa Ln	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,003 (+11%)	3mo	$297,900	$149	48
19907 Park Mesa Ln	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,003 (+11%)	2mo	$289,900	$145	48
20082 Briarcliff Park Ln	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,003 (+11%)	4mo	$299,900	$150	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-78,614
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-125,670
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 39 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.2 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,990 ($160/sqft)
• Median days on market: 73 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-588

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $154,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-423	-5% $-505	+0% $-588	+5% $-671	+10% $-754
Rent	-10% $-738	-5% $-663	+0% $-588	+5% $-514	+10% $-439
Rate	-1.0pp $-468	-0.5pp $-527	base $-588	+0.5pp $-651	+1.0pp $-714

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20047 Briarcliff Park Ln Porter, TX	4.0	2.5	1785	$2,035	$1.14	64d	1	0.48mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,583	$1.05	38d	1	0.87mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3047 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,583	$1.05	48d	1	0.87mi
24770 Stowbridge Dr Porter, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1109	$2,349	$2.12	0d	34	0.89mi
206 Kellington Dr Unit 5201 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,275	$1.02	73d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 4207 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,500	$1.20	30d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 306 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,548	$1.03	31d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 9101 Kingwood, TX	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,379	$1.11	31d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 306 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,532	$1.02	0d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 3228 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,578	$1.05	1d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 510 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,548	$1.03	33d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Apt 14301 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,979	$1.32	35d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 313 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,532	$1.02	31d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 233 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,532	$1.02	23d	1	0.94mi
200 Kellington Dr Unit 12108 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,879	$1.25	43d	1	0.94mi
21919 Northpark Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,962	$1.95	1d	40	0.97mi
300 Forest Center Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,114	$1.99	1d	30	1.01mi
25601 Thistle Valley Ct Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	2300	$2,295	$1.00	93d	1	1.02mi
25606 Northpark Palm Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	73d	1	1.08mi
25407 Northpark Lake Dr Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,745	$1.25	70d	1	1.12mi
25545 Sorters McClellan Rd Porter, TX	2.0	2.0	1294	$1,949	$1.51	60d	1	1.17mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	93d	1	1.21mi
156 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,777	$1.20	71d	1	1.21mi
150 Northpark Plaza Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$3,073	$2.89	0d	21	1.28mi
23200 Forest North Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,949	$1.78	0d	17	1.36mi
200 Northpines Dr Kingwood, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,127	$2.07	0d	34	1.42mi
200 Northpines Dr Apt 233 Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,002	$1.41	93d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $240,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $240,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $240,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-07-20
   days on market $240,000 Active 168 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 166 DOM
7. 2026-07-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 165 DOM
8. 2026-07-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 164 DOM
9. 2026-07-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-07-14
    days on market $240,000 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-07-13
    days on market $240,000 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-07-13
    days on market $240,000 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-07-11
    days on market $240,000 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-07-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-07-09
    days on market $240,000 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-07-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-07-06
    days on market $240,000 Active 154 DOM
18. 2026-07-06
    days on market $240,000 Active 153 DOM
19. 2026-07-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 152 DOM
20. 2026-07-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 151 DOM
21. 2026-07-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 150 DOM
22. 2026-07-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 149 DOM
23. 2026-06-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 148 DOM
24. 2026-06-29
    days on market $240,000 Active 147 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $240,000 Active 146 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $240,000 Active 145 DOM
27. 2026-06-26
    days on market $240,000 Active 144 DOM
28. 2026-06-24
    days on market $240,000 Active 142 DOM
29. 2026-06-22
    days on market $240,000 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-06-21
    days on market $240,000 Active 139 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $240,000 Active 136 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $240,000 Active 135 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $240,000 Active 134 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $240,000 Active 133 DOM
35. 2026-06-13
    days on market $240,000 Active 131 DOM
36. 2026-06-10
    days on market $240,000 Active 127 DOM
37. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-05-17
    price $240,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and cozy modern one-story home offering 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a spacious lot in Montgomery County. This single-level layout blends modern style with everyday comfort, featuring open, airy living areas that feel both inviting and functional. Set on an oversized lot with no restrictions, the property offers endless possibilities room for a garden, workshop, outdoor entertaining, or future expansion. The modern design creates a fresh, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining a cozy feel that truly feels like home. Enjoy the freedom, space, and flexibility rarely found together, all in a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities. Perfect for those seeking modern living, extra land, and no HOA restrictions.

45. 2026-03-04
    price $275,000 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and cozy modern one-story home offering 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a spacious lot in Montgomery County. This single-level layout blends modern style with everyday comfort, featuring open, airy living areas that feel both inviting and functional. Set on an oversized lot with no restrictions, the property offers endless possibilities room for a garden, workshop, outdoor entertaining, or future expansion. The modern design creates a fresh, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining a cozy feel that truly feels like home. Enjoy the freedom, space, and flexibility rarely found together, all in a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities. Perfect for those seeking modern living, extra land, and no HOA restrictions.

46. 2026-03-04
    price $27,500 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and cozy modern one-story home offering 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a spacious lot in Montgomery County. This single-level layout blends modern style with everyday comfort, featuring open, airy living areas that feel both inviting and functional. Set on an oversized lot with no restrictions, the property offers endless possibilities room for a garden, workshop, outdoor entertaining, or future expansion. The modern design creates a fresh, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining a cozy feel that truly feels like home. Enjoy the freedom, space, and flexibility rarely found together, all in a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities. Perfect for those seeking modern living, extra land, and no HOA restrictions.

47. 2026-02-02
    listed $320,000 Active 792-char remark

    Show marketing remark (792 chars)

    Welcome to this beautiful and cozy modern one-story home offering 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space on a spacious lot in Montgomery County. This single-level layout blends modern style with everyday comfort, featuring open, airy living areas that feel both inviting and functional. Set on an oversized lot with no restrictions, the property offers endless possibilities room for a garden, workshop, outdoor entertaining, or future expansion. The modern design creates a fresh, welcoming atmosphere while maintaining a cozy feel that truly feels like home. Enjoy the freedom, space, and flexibility rarely found together, all in a peaceful setting with convenient access to local amenities. Perfect for those seeking modern living, extra land, and no HOA restrictions.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$6,319
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$11,246
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,699
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,361/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,000–$27,000 screening

This modern single-story home in Montgomery County is in good condition with a good rehab level, featuring a spacious layout, modern design, and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home more appealing ↑
• Both Lighting — Modern lighting can improve ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Woodridge Forest Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High West Fork H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 46,418
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $27,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $320,000 HARMLS