471 Griffith Rd · Narrowsburg, NY 18469

$48,800

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1968 1.00 ac lot Est $66k · 26% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built in 1968, this one level home offers approximately 1120 finished square feet, three bedrooms and one full bath, unfinished basement, rear deck and built-in one car garage. This home sits on an approximate 43560 sqft lot. This home is in uninhabitable condition due to mold on most interior walls and ceilings.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $486 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $49k).
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 1.7% in Narrowsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,108 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wayne Highlands SD (town): math 48% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #115 of 539 in PA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Damascus Area Sch (math 57% / reading 77%, grade B+, #202 of 1,518 statewide, top 15%, 275 students, 41% FRL); Wayne Highlands Ms (math 37% / reading 65%, grade C, #116 of 512 statewide, top 24%, 376 students, 46% FRL); Honesdale Hs (math 72% / reading 24%, grade D, #153 of 437 statewide, top 37%, 697 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($337 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,800

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.52%
• DSCR: 3.11
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
471 Griffith Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,120 (0%)	1mo	$66,000	$59	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $36,837
• Equity at exit: $21,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.43×
• Total profit: $87,896
• Equity at exit: $33,770

Cash invested: $13,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18469

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,112 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$256
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $732/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $486

Break-even live

Break-even rent $497

Max offer price $48,800

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $502	+0% $486	+5% $469	+10% $452
Rent	-10% $398	-5% $442	+0% $486	+5% $529	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $510	-0.5pp $498	base $486	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,200
• Closing costs: $1,464
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-03
   listed $48,800 Active
3. 1999-06-26
   soldstatus $64,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,734
• − Property taxes: −$732
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,067
• − Management: −$1,067
• − Depreciation: −$1,420
• Taxable income: $5,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $4,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne Highlands SD
• NCES district ID: 4224970
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $46,476
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2292
• State rank: #115 of 539 in PA

Livability — Narrowsburg

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1108
• US rank: #22694

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 506

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Iranian 3% Danish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.99%
• Current HPI: 195.1322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $48,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 1999-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,592 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.