Whitetail Plan · Roman Forest, TX 77336

$231,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 177 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open layout
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $231,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,178.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $232k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-375 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#595 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,151 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.34%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,178
• List price: $231,990
• Delta: -22.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
908 Lago Laceno Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$270,990	$133	91
918 Lago Laceno Ln	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$272,990	$134	89
906 Coperchiata Cir	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$271,990	$133	89
31422 Casacalenda Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	3mo	$276,990	$136	88
911 Capracotta Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+2%)	3mo	$329,990	$158	86
31413 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$270,990	$133	86
31424 Pratola Serra Cir	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,039 (0%)	2mo	$280,990	$138	85
31517 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,968 (-4%)	2mo	$288,990	$147	78
912 Capracotta Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-14%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	64
31507 San Floro Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-12%)	1mo	$304,990	$170	62
31504 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	2mo	$271,990	$155	61
31515 Pianella Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	3mo	$277,990	$158	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,656
• Equity at exit: $44,907

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-93,890
• Equity at exit: $26,040

Cash invested: $84,330 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,579
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,518/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $246,913

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-167	-5% $-271	+0% $-375	+5% $-479	+10% $-583
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-460	+0% $-375	+5% $-290	+10% $-204
Rate	-1.0pp $-223	-0.5pp $-298	base $-375	+0.5pp $-453	+1.0pp $-532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,294
• Closing costs: $9,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $231,990 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $231,990 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $231,990 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $231,990 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $231,990 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,990 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,990 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $228,990 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $228,990 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,990 Active 162 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,990 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,990 Active 160 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2025-12-23
    listed $268,990 Active 415-char remark

    Show marketing remark (415 chars)

    The first floor of this two-story home shares a spacious open layout between the kitchen, dining room and family room for easy entertaining. Upstairs are three secondary bedrooms, ideal for residents and overnight guests, surrounding a versatile loft that serves as an additional shared living space. An owner's suite sprawls across the rear of the second floor and enjoys an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,871
• − Property taxes: −$4,518
• − Insurance: −$1,506
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$8,762
• Taxable loss: −$9,883
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,128/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minimal cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and adds a polished look

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Window treatments — Improves energy efficiency and adds a polished look ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Roman Forest

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #595
• US rank: #11338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $268,990 Zillow