400 W Baseline Rd Lot 241 · Tempe, AZ 85283

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

?? Beautifully Upgraded 3 Bed / 2 Bath Home & ndash; Move-In Ready! Welcome to this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,334 sq ft of thoughtfully updated living space. This home has been well maintained and features several major upgrades, making it truly move-in ready. ? Recent Upgrades Include: & bull; Brand new flooring throughout & ndash; no carpet & bull; New ceiling fans for added comfort & bull; Brand new roof & bull; New skirting & bull; Newly installed carport with spacious covered parking Step inside to an open and inviting layout with plenty of natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The updated flooring giv

Key facts

• New ceiling fans
• New flooring
• New skirting

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CEILING FANS
• NEW ROOF
• NEW SKIRTING
• NEWLY INSTALLED CARPORT
• SPACIOUS COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Tempe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#10 in AZ, #2,527 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Tempe School District (4258) (urban): math 17% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #170 of 249 in AZ (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 141 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.64%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $100,050
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
400 W Baseline Rd #281	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-1%)	3mo	$129,900	$98	91
400 W Baseline Rd #215	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-1%)	11mo	$138,000	$105	80
400 W Baseline Rd #77	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,259 (-6%)	13mo	$95,000	$75	76
400 W Baseline Rd #251	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	10mo	$52,000	$45	68
400 W Baseline Rd #72	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	17mo	$70,000	$58	66
400 W Baseline Rd #308	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-14%)	14mo	$69,000	$60	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,294
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,084
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85283

• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,090 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4505 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	840	$1,799	$2.14	1d	19	0.34mi
505 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	863	$1,525	$1.77	1d	33	0.39mi
30 W Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	652	$1,635	$2.51	1d	28	0.39mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1088	$1,695	$1.56	18d	1	0.41mi
15 E Carter Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.5	1119	$1,695	$1.51	21d	1	0.41mi
3907 S Farmer Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	3.0	1868	$2,599	$1.39	21d	1	0.42mi
5038 S Hardy Dr Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1082	$1,959	$1.81	1d	21	0.43mi
935 W Santa Cruz Dr Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1551	$2,695	$1.74	10d	1	0.45mi
4130 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,399	$2.07	1d	61	0.46mi
517 W Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,150	$1.51	1d	1	0.47mi
4711 S Grandview Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,400	$1.46	14d	1	0.47mi
208 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,399	$1.75	1d	20	0.54mi
530 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	881	$1,650	$1.87	1d	1	0.58mi
528 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1374	$2,399	$1.75	10d	1	0.59mi
106 E Duke Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,150	$1.45	23d	1	0.60mi
422 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 418 Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	1d	1	0.61mi
418 W Pebble Beach Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	1d	1	0.61mi
3937 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1536	$2,195	$1.43	1d	1	0.61mi
3730 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	628	$1,487	$2.37	1d	28	0.62mi
515 W Pebble Beach Dr Unit 513 Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	1d	1	0.62mi
951 W La Jolla Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1383	$3,500	$2.53	1d	1	0.63mi
3815 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	3.0	1536	$2,000	$1.30	1d	1	0.66mi
1222 W Baseline Rd #261 Tempe, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	1d	1	0.67mi
1016 W Manhatton Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1736	$2,400	$1.38	17d	1	0.67mi
3729 S Mill Ave Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,100	$0.69	21d	1	0.68mi
1133 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$2,100	$2.19	1d	1	0.69mi
633 W Southern Ave #1147 Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	10d	1	0.69mi
743 W Fordham Dr Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0	988	$1,695	$1.72	15d	1	0.71mi
1145 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$1,425	$1.73	1d	10	0.75mi
208 E Oxford Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1535	$3,400	$2.21	1d	1	0.75mi
208 E Oxford Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1535	$3,400	$2.21	23d	1	0.75mi
909 W Malibu Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,850	$1.69	1d	1	0.75mi
5749 S Farmer Ave Tempe, AZ	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,595	$1.57	1d	1	0.76mi
407 E Harvard Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1267	$2,299	$1.81	23d	1	0.79mi
1311 W Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	695	$1,519	$2.19	1d	25	0.83mi
1118 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,879	$2.30	1d	1	0.84mi
577 E Baseline Rd Tempe, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,159	$2.09	1d	14	0.85mi
506 E Hermosa Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,700	$1.01	2d	1	0.87mi
910 W Yale Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,225	$1.39	1d	1	0.91mi
1210 W Tulane Dr Tempe, AZ	3.0	1.0	910	$2,100	$2.31	1d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $189,900 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-03-30
    listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $1,107
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$266
• After-tax cash flow: $3,799/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. Upgrades include new flooring, ceiling fans, and a new roof. Potential value-adding improvements include painting the exterior and landscaping the front yard.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both Upgrading the carport — Provides additional covered parking and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both Upgrading the carport — Provides additional covered parking and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tempe School District (4258)
• NCES district ID: 0408310
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $43,112
• Composite: 19.7/100
• National rank: #8721
• State rank: #170 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tempe

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #2527

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tempe, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 193,337
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 47,459
• Household income: $84,568
• Rent vs Own: 49.1% rent · 50.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2128.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Asian 8% Black 7% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -390.57%
• Current HPI: 328.638
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.95%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $189,900 Fizber.com