6818 Herndon · Stockton, CA 95219

$234,224

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 901 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 5,000 sqft lot Est $319k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as a button!!! Updated kitchen and bathroom, newer roof, and big backyard in the desireable Lincoln Unified School District. Easy I-5 access.

Key facts

• $0 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1972

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Part of Lincoln Village West HOA; HOA fee paid quarterly; Community amenities include a pool; Community of about 60 units; Community features include biking

Exterior

• Utilities: Water source: Other; Sewer: Unknown (Sewer or Septic - Unknown)
• Home design: Condominium; Attached property; Single-story; One common wall
• Construction: House structure type; Year built source listed as 'Other'
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level living; Entry on main level
• Laundry & utility: No laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lincoln Unified (urban): math 26% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #284 of 517 in CA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mable Barron (math 23% / reading 31%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 672 students, 57% FRL); Sierra Middle (math 25% / reading 48%, grade F, #175 of 498 statewide, top 36%, 572 students, 73% FRL); Lincoln High (math 35% / reading 64%, grade D, #352 of 1,170 statewide, top 31%, 2,936 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,305 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,954
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6885 Sumter Quay Cir	0.14mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	6mo	$319,000	$354	89
6900 Allegheny Pl	0.22mi	2/1.0	903 (+0%)	10mo	$319,900	$354	81
6831 Butler Ct	0.09mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	22mo	$325,000	$361	78
3518 W Benjamin Holt Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	902 (+0%)	12mo	$300,000	$333	77
6832 Butler Ct	0.12mi	2/1.0	901 (0%)	24mo	$315,000	$350	74
6904 Allegheny Pl	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	999 (+11%)	10mo	$325,000	$325	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $113,425
• Equity at exit: $211,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $352,157
• Equity at exit: $455,046

Cash invested: $65,583 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95219

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 217
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,228
• Tax from tax record: −$462 /mo · $5,539/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $188,305

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-127	-5% $-194	+0% $-260	+5% $-326	+10% $-393
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-336	+0% $-260	+5% $-184	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-142	-0.5pp $-200	base $-260	+0.5pp $-321	+1.0pp $-382

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,556
• Closing costs: $7,027
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,950	$2.00	25d	1	0.10mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,495	$2.06	5d	1	0.10mi
3286 Blue Ridge Cir Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,950	$2.29	12d	2	0.10mi
3525 W Benjamin Holt Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	710	$2,015	$2.84	4d	11	0.14mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 3 Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	45d	1	0.27mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 1 Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	680	$1,450	$2.13	45d	1	0.28mi
6851 Plymouth Rd Unit 2 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,750	$2.03	45d	1	0.28mi
3335 Riverton Way Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,402	$2.26	21d	1	0.28mi
2903 Whittier Ct Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1102	$1,995	$1.81	25d	1	0.34mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	660	$1,850	$2.80	5d	2	0.37mi
6724 Plymouth Rd Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	560	$1,400	$2.50	45d	1	0.37mi
6724 Plymouth Rd #37 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	760	$1,850	$2.43	25d	1	0.37mi
6353 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,975	$2.26	45d	1	0.46mi
6408 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,960	$3.19	4d	4	0.47mi
3722 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	978	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.52mi
2973 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,925	$2.81	4d	6	0.56mi
7355 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,800	$2.02	5d	1	0.58mi
3038 W Swain Rd Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$2,100	$2.28	5d	1	0.60mi
7356 Kelley Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,600	$1.44	25d	1	0.60mi
3790 W Benjamin Holt Dr #13 Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$1,850	$1.89	25d	1	0.62mi
7565 Shoreline Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,255	$2.66	3d	4	0.75mi
5858 Morgan Pl Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	884	$1,872	$2.12	4d	7	0.77mi
5834 Brush Creek Dr Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,295	$2.09	4d	1	0.94mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 009 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,100	$2.00	4d	1	0.97mi
7901 Montgomery Ave Unit 010 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,075	$1.98	4d	1	0.97mi
7921 Montgomery Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,695	$1.51	45d	1	0.99mi
7912 Richland Way Stockton, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,079	$2.08	0d	7	1.02mi
8035 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,179	$2.31	4d	20	1.15mi
8473 Kelley Dr Unit D Stockton, CA	2.0	1.5	980	$1,650	$1.68	13d	1	1.27mi
5301 Feather River Dr Stockton, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,575	$3.02	4d	6	1.32mi
3591 Quail Lakes Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	2.0	930	$1,595	$1.72	5d	1	1.36mi
8531 Mariners Dr Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	946	$2,210	$2.34	0d	4	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $234,224 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,224 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,224 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $234,224 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,539 · $462/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,539 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 24 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,203
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,120
• − Property taxes: −$5,539
• − Insurance: −$1,171
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$6,814
• Taxable loss: −$7,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,717
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Unified
• NCES district ID: 0621690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,356
• Composite: 29.66/100
• National rank: #6465
• State rank: #284 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,713
• Household income: $112,268
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 825.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 33% Hispanic / Latino 30% Asian 21% Two or more races 18% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.26%
• Current HPI: 1122.61
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.16%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+836.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $234,224 CRMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-05-14 Listed $234,224 CRMLS
• 2019-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $258,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-31 Sold (MLS) $258,000 MLSListings
• 2006-05-03 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2006-02-18 Listed $257,900 MLSListings
• 1994-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,539 · +71.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.