512 Harold Ln · Baytown, TX 77521

$200,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,327 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1960 6,930 sqft lot $86/sqft · 11% below area Est $225k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the space and flexibility you’ve been searching for in this well-maintained traditional home featuring 5 spacious bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The inviting layout offers comfortable living areas perfect for everyday life and hosting family or friends. The functional kitchen provides ample cabinet storage and connects easily to the main living spaces, making gatherings and daily routines feel effortless. The private primary bedroom creates a relaxing retreat, while the additional bedrooms offer plenty of options for family, guests, or a home office. Updated plumbing fixtures add modern touches, and a transferable foundation warranty provides added peace of mind. Situated on a gen

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Generous lot
• Well maintained

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• UPDATED PLUMBING FIXTURES
• GENEROUS LOT
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other:
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Built in 1960; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundations
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced backyard; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 12x12); Two additional bedrooms on first floor (each approx. 10x10); Two bedrooms on second floor (each approx. 10x10); Total of 5 rooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fan(s); Combined living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $265 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ashbel Smith El (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 582 students, 90% FRL); Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 61% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 621 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $200k implies a 366% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.67%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,159
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 2.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 River Bend Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,306 (-1%)	5mo	$249,999	$108	79
705 Inwood Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,248 (-3%)	1mo	$130,000	$58	79
414 Harold Ln	0.09mi	5/2.0	2,052 (-12%)	5mo	$254,900	$124	72
201 Midway Dr	0.68mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,386 (+2%)	3mo	$240,000	$101	56
2126 Sanders Brook Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,377 (+2%)	5mo	$331,163	$139	52
2134 Sanders Brook Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,365 (+2%)	7mo	$355,350	$150	47
115 Wilburn Dr	0.67mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,160 (-7%)	11mo	$260,000	$120	39
2127 Sanders Brook Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,121 (-9%)	6mo	$307,279	$145	39
2118 Sanders Brook Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,121 (-9%)	6mo	$303,197	$143	38
2102 Spring Hollow Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,121 (-9%)	6mo	$326,582	$154	37
2130 Sanders Brook Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,121 (-9%)	10mo	$310,342	$146	35
200 Scott St	0.71mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,998 (-14%)	2mo	$245,000	$123	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,844
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,798
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 621
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,733/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,932

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $378	-5% $321	+0% $265	+5% $208	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $86	-5% $175	+0% $265	+5% $354	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $365	-0.5pp $316	base $265	+0.5pp $213	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $200,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $230,000 Pending 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $230,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $230,000 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-03-09
   listed $230,000 Active 926-char remark
10. 2026-02-24
    historical
11. 2026-02-02
    listed $230,000 Active
12. 2025-01-08
    historical
13. 2024-12-28
    listed $200,000 Active
14. 2024-12-06
    historical
15. 1992-07-07
    soldstatus
16. 1989-02-01
    soldstatus $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,733 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,733
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$24
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2121.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+366.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-12-28 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-06 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 1992-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $42,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,733 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.