5805 SW 157th Pl · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$298,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · Land · 146 Days on market

Built 2025 0.27 ac lot $172/sqft · 9% above area Est $274k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEAR THE GOLF CLUB AND ALDI!!! Inside photos are from model home. This brand-new home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering a comfortable and modern layout. The open-concept kitchen comes fully equipped with all kitchen appliances. The home also includes a 2-car garage, providing ample parking and storage space. Built with quality finishes and designed for convenience, this property is made for homeowners or investors looking for a new construction opportunity in Ocala. Conveniently located near a golf club, DG Market, and Aldi, the property offers easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials.

Key facts

• Near the golf club
• Open-concept kitchen
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• NEAR THE GOLF CLUB
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• NEW CONSTRUCTION OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $298k implies a 751% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,954 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,386
• List price: $298,000
• Delta: 8.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-62,519
• Equity at exit: $44,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-88,630
• Equity at exit: $25,766

Cash invested: $83,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $616/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,200

Max offer price $275,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-43	+0% $-127	+5% $-551	+10% $-654
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-208	+0% $-127	+5% $-46	+10% $34
Rate	-1.0pp $23	-0.5pp $-51	base $-127	+0.5pp $-204	+1.0pp $-283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,500
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	14d	1	0.14mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	21d	1	0.19mi
16054 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.46mi
16210 SW 59th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,200	$1.36	14d	1	0.48mi
15713 SW 49th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.51mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	14d	1	0.55mi
15962 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,800	$1.30	14d	1	0.56mi
5141 SW 157th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.59mi
15944 SW 53rd Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,850	$1.40	21d	1	0.62mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	14d	1	0.62mi
576 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,845	$1.08	14d	1	0.63mi
5077 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1761	$2,045	$1.16	14d	1	0.68mi
5029 SW 155th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	0.74mi
15760 SW 55th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,000	$1.32	21d	1	0.74mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.75mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	21d	1	0.88mi
15095 SW 51st Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,500	$1.25	14d	1	0.89mi
4967 SW 150th Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	21d	1	1.06mi
15209 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,650	$0.98	21d	1	1.07mi
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	14d	1	1.08mi
4605 SW 158th Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,695	$0.99	21d	1	1.09mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	1.09mi
15018 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,625	$1.15	14d	1	1.13mi
14965 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1342	$1,700	$1.27	14d	1	1.16mi
566 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,100	$1.17	14d	1	1.16mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	14d	1	1.20mi
422 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,900	$1.20	14d	1	1.23mi
333 Marion Oaks Golf Way Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,695	$1.05	14d	1	1.23mi
14919 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1870	$2,000	$1.07	14d	1	1.23mi
15568 SW 46th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,200	$1.20	14d	1	1.25mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	14d	1	1.26mi
550 Marion Oaks Blvd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,850	$1.17	14d	1	1.27mi
14843 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,725	$1.10	21d	1	1.29mi
4484 SW 151st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	1.35mi
4572 SW 149th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,950	$1.11	21d	1	1.35mi
16090 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.44mi
16094 SW 42nd Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1796	$1,899	$1.06	14d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $298,000 Pending 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $298,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $298,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $298,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $298,000 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $298,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $298,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $298,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $298,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-01-16
    listed $314,000 Active 634-char remark

    Show marketing remark (634 chars)

    NEAR THE GOLF CLUB AND ALDI!!! Inside photos are from model home. This brand-new home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, offering a comfortable and modern layout. The open-concept kitchen comes fully equipped with all kitchen appliances. The home also includes a 2-car garage, providing ample parking and storage space. Built with quality finishes and designed for convenience, this property is made for homeowners or investors looking for a new construction opportunity in Ocala. Conveniently located near a golf club, DG Market, and Aldi, the property offers easy access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials.

11. 2024-12-16
    soldstatus $35,000
12. 2004-05-17
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $616 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,858/yr (+$155/mo · 301.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,693
• − Property taxes: −$616
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$6,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,658
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2516.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-16 Listed $314,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $616 · +21.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.