8590 Old Military Rd · San Pedro, TX 78520

$200,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,137 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1945 1.94 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment Opportunity in Brownsville - 8590 Old Military Rd Description: Prime investment opportunity located at 8590 Old Military Rd, Brownsville, TX 78520. This property offers a strategic location with excellent connectivity and significant potential for investors or buyers looking for a property with immediate cash flow. Key Features: Income Generating: Currently occupied by a single tenant UNTIL 08/15/2026 lease, providing flexibility for the new owner. Strategic Location: Situated on a high-visibility corridor with easy access to major local routes and amenities. Condition: Property is being sold "As-Is". ?? IMPORTANT NOTICE: To respect the tenant's privacy, interior access

Key facts

• Income generating
• Strategic location
• 1.94 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• STRATEGIC LOCATION
• INCOME GENERATING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($679/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,381 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Villa Nueva El (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,333 of 4,322 statewide, top 80%, 361 students, 94% FRL); Stillman Middle (math 26% / reading 43%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 1,095 students, 68% FRL); Veterans Memorial Early College H S (math 33% / reading 69%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 2,172 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 348 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,142 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.21%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,481
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,730
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 348
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $822/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $170	-5% $113	+0% $57	+5% $0	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-6	+0% $57	+5% $119	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $107	base $57	+0.5pp $5	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $822 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,838/yr (+$237/mo · 345.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$822
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$672
• After-tax cash flow: $1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Pedro

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1381
• US rank: #23733

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Pedro, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $200,000 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $822 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.