725 Thea Mdws · Marion, TX 78124

$251,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,173 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $116/sqft · 11% below area Est $284k · 11% under $92/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $252k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-254 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #243 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 408 active listings in the ZIP; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $199,884 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.33%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,408
• List price: $251,999
• Delta: -11.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
725 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,173 (0%)	1mo	$251,999	$116	99
709 Thea Mdws	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,173 (0%)	1mo	$246,999	$114	99
2220 Payton Spgs	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,210 (+2%)	1mo	$296,999	$134	94
2231 Laurie Spgs	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,015 (-7%)	1mo	$259,999	$129	85
2370 Acton	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,378 (+9%)	1mo	$280,000	$118	81
2215 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-13%)	1mo	$232,999	$124	77
2223 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-15%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	73
2111 Allison Crk	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,850 (-15%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	72
2272 Monument Hl	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,269 (+4%)	1mo	$282,999	$125	68
2126 Monument Hl	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-7%)	1mo	$279,999	$138	64
2276 Monument Hl	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,024 (-7%)	2mo	$296,999	$147	64
112 Seidel	0.62mi	4/2.0	2,054 (-6%)	1mo	$319,000	$155	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,952
• Equity at exit: $37,574

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-70,107
• Equity at exit: $21,788

Cash invested: $70,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78124

• Active inventory: 408
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,999 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,322
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,780/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,321

Max offer price $215,183

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,000
• Closing costs: $7,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $251,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $253,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-29
   status Back on Market 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-25
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-18
   price $256,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-03-17
   price $257,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-03-12
   price $258,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-03-03
   price $272,999 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-02-24
    price $271,999 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-02-10
    price $264,999 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-01-27
    listed $268,999 New 531-char remark

    Show marketing remark (531 chars)

    The Barlow - This new two-story home is host to an open-concept floorplan on the first level combining the kitchen, dining area and family room for effortless entertaining and multitasking. A versatile game room is located upstairs near four bedrooms, including the luxe owner's suite with a spa-inspired bathroom and generous walk-in closet. Estimated Completion April 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,986
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,116
• − Property taxes: −$3,780
• − Insurance: −$1,260
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,919
• − Management: −$1,919
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$7,331
• Taxable loss: −$7,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829100
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $58,465
• Composite: 39.86/100
• National rank: #3867
• State rank: #243 of 826 in TX

Livability — Marion

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,907

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 24% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.83%
• Current HPI: 189.5796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $251,999 LERA
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $253,999 LERA
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-25 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $256,999 LERA
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $257,999 LERA
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $258,999 LERA
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $272,999 LERA
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $271,999 LERA
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $264,999 LERA
• 2026-01-27 Listed $268,999 LERA