2904 S Lea Ave · Roswell, NM 88203

$185,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,371 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1960 6,540 sqft lot $135/sqft · 147% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

Key facts

• 6,540 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity connected; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: 6,540 sq ft lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; No heating specified
• Interior features: Free-standing range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 177 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,685/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,530 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,224
• List price: $185,500
• Delta: 146.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-16,379
• Equity at exit: $27,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,138
• Equity at exit: $16,039

Cash invested: $51,940 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88203

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,412

Max offer price $185,500

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $268	+0% $216	+5% $163	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $83	-5% $149	+0% $216	+5% $283	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $263	base $216	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,375
• Closing costs: $5,565
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 S Onyx Dr Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	44d	1	0.17mi
2614 Palomar Pl Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,400	$1.10	44d	1	0.37mi
1915 S Pennsylvania Ave Roswell, NM	4.0	2.0	1757	$1,800	$1.02	44d	1	0.60mi
1049 W Poe St Roswell, NM	2.0	1.5	1413	$1,200	$0.85	44d	1	0.79mi
1014 Plaza del Sol Roswell, NM	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,275	$1.11	44d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,500 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,500 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,500 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,500 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,500 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,500 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,500 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,500 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,500 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $185,500 Active 625-char remark
18. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus Closed 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

19. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

20. 2023-08-28
    status Pending 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

21. 2023-08-07
    historical 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

22. 2023-07-31
    price $136,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

23. 2023-06-23
    listed $146,000 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Home fit for a family and ready to move in! Clean 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, plus TWO bonus rooms that extend from both sides of kitchen. Dishwasher, Stove, microwave and refrigerator stay! Renovated FULL bathroom. Duct work has been installed if desire an AC unit (currently evaporated air). Double car spaced driveway. Spacious-enclosed back yard includes a very well-maintained storage shed that can also be used as a workshop.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$700/yr (+$58/mo · 89.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,391
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$928
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,396
• Taxable loss: −$511
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$123
• After-tax cash flow: $2,714/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, NM
• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 28,753
• Household income: $42,207
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 31% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.30%
• Current HPI: 151.1401
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+27.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $185,500 NMMLS
• 2023-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-10-02 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2023-08-28 Pending — NMMLS
• 2023-08-07 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2023-07-31 Price Changed $136,000 NMMLS
• 2023-06-23 Listed $146,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · -31.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.