4040 Aura Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$715,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,635 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2020 6,050 sqft lot $197/sqft · 11% below area Est $800k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2020, this 4-bedroom + office home offers flexible living, owned solar, and smart upgrades throughout. Soaring ceilings greet you at the entry, with an open layout that includes a full bed and bath downstairs, ideal for guests or multi-gen living. The dedicated downstairs office can easily convert to a 5th bedroom as needed. The oversized and gorgeous kitchen island anchors the heart of the home, with a walk-in pantry and formal dining area nearby. Upstairs, a bright loft offers extra living space, while the primary suite is a true retreat with dual walk-in closets, a soaking tub, separate shower, and a spacious bathroom that feels more like a spa. The garage is upgraded with epoxy

Key facts

• Bright loft
• Smart upgrades
• Owned solar

Tags

• OWNED SOLAR
• SMART UPGRADES
• OVERSIZED KITCHEN ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DEDICATED DOWNSTAIRS OFFICE
• BRIGHT LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $715k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (53.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $342k (52.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $333k (53.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$123k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($694k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $333,481 (53.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.95%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $799,807
• List price: $715,000
• Delta: -10.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3983 Lucent Ct	0.09mi	4/3.5	3,501 (-4%)	5mo	$970,000	$277	85
4387 Borderlands Dr	0.29mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,731 (+3%)	13mo	$935,391	$251	66
12205 Hetch Hechy Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,375 (-7%)	5mo	$755,000	$224	63
12213 Hetch Hechy Dr	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,375 (-7%)	7mo	$761,450	$226	61
12009 Roquefort Way	0.30mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,375 (-7%)	10mo	$767,700	$227	59
12000 Armandi Way	0.31mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,375 (-7%)	10mo	$869,990	$258	58
12306 Canyonlands Dr	0.49mi	4/4.0	3,360 (-8%)	8mo	$748,888	$223	56
12233 Hetch Hechy Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	3,165 (-13%)	7mo	$767,000	$242	54
12032 Armandi Way	0.24mi	4/3.0	3,165 (-13%)	15mo	$770,000	$243	53
12037 Aleria Cir	0.16mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,176 (-13%)	15mo	$842,923	$265	50
11896 Slate Falls Way	0.72mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,281 (-10%)	11mo	$777,777	$237	34
11882 Cobble Brook Dr	0.67mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,179 (-12%)	15mo	$729,900	$230	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $248,720
• Equity at exit: $644,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $834,481
• Equity at exit: $1,389,088

Cash invested: $200,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,424 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,750
• Tax from tax record: −$817 /mo · $9,803/yr
• Insurance: −$298
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$719
• Net cashflow: $-2,160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,157

Max offer price $333,481

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,755	-5% $-1,957	+0% $-2,160	+5% $-2,362	+10% $-2,564
Rent	-10% $-2,430	-5% $-2,295	+0% $-2,160	+5% $-2,024	+10% $-1,889
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,800	-0.5pp $-1,978	base $-2,160	+0.5pp $-2,345	+1.0pp $-2,533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $178,750
• Closing costs: $21,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11925 Cobblebrook Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2786	$3,595	$1.29	45d	1	0.54mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.94mi
4221 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2763	$3,195	$1.16	9d	1	0.95mi
4223 Anatolia Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	25d	1	0.96mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,803 · $817/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,803 · $817/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,051
• − Property taxes: −$9,803
• − Insurance: −$3,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,287
• − Management: −$3,287
• − Depreciation: −$20,800
• Taxable loss: −$39,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,533
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+36.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,803 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.