Is 2607 Ohio St in Paducah, KY a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B+ with a 13.9% cap rate and $342/mo modeled cash flow at a $54,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2607 Ohio St?

The modeled cap rate is 13.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $906/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B+ Composite 75.78

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
ARV discount +15.0/15.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
Livability +3.4/5.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$54,000

2607 Ohio St · Paducah, KY 42003

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Built 1925 Fair condition 0.28 ac lot Garage $55/sqft · 49% below area Est $106k · 49% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1925 home full of character and opportunity! Situated on a large lot , this property features a detached garage and timeless architectural details throughout. Inside, you'll find high ceilings, a cozy gas log fireplace, and beautiful original wood floors that add warmth and charm to the living spaces. This home offers great potential for investors or handy homeowners looking to restore and customize. While it boasts solid bones and classic appeal, it does need some TLC, including flooring work in the kitchen, and ceiling work in one of the bedrooms. Being sold AS IS, this property is a fantastic opportunity to bring your vision to life and build equity. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, parks, and entertainment, this home combines location, character, and potential-all at an attractive value. Don't miss a chance to transform this hidden gem into something truly special.

Key facts

Classic appeal
Original wood floors
Detached garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $54k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($906 rent vs $54k).
Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.0% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Morgan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 380 students, 89% FRL); Paducah Middle School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 652 students, 69% FRL); Paducah Tilghman High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 878 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $16k; list at $54k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.68% ✓
Cap rate: 13.90%
Cash-on-cash: 27.18%
DSCR: 2.21
GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $105,938
List price: $54,000
Delta: -49.03%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2328 Center St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	5mo	$158,000	$165	71
2332 Center St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-2%)	8mo	$128,400	$134	69
2827 Cornell St	0.59mi	2/1.0	994 (+1%)	2mo	$144,500	$145	69
2909 Clark St	0.40mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,018 (+4%)	4mo	$180,000	$177	65
3019 Mississippi St	0.59mi	2/1.0	918 (-6%)	4mo	$150,000	$163	58
2600 Monroe St	0.61mi	2/1.0	899 (-8%)	6mo	$127,500	$142	53
3001 Georgia St	0.63mi	2/1.0	900 (-8%)	8mo	$54,000	$60	50
3017 Georgia St	0.65mi	2/1.0	888 (-10%)	5mo	$70,000	$79	49
926 S 21st St	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,102 (+12%)	6mo	$79,000	$72	47
2936 Cornell St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+10%)	6mo	$94,000	$87	41
2403 Monroe St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,118 (+14%)	8mo	$162,500	$145	39
2707 Madison St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-12%)	8mo	$130,000	$150	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 21.2%
Equity multiple: 1.86×
Total profit: $13,075
Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

IRR: 29.3%
Equity multiple: 3.61×
Total profit: $39,527
Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 18 active · 7 under contract
Months of supply: 4.7 mo (21%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $132,450 ($123/sqft)
Median days on market: 34 d
This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -12.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 42003

Home prices YoY: -19.8%
Active inventory: 372
Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $906 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$283
Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
Insurance: −$22
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$190
Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $380	-5% $361	+0% $342	+5% $324	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $271	-5% $307	+0% $342	+5% $378	+10% $414
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $356	base $342	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $13,500
Closing costs: $1,620
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
922 S 27th St Unit A Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	600	$875	$1.46	93d	1	0.21mi
1900 Jefferson St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	93d	1	0.78mi
2967 Harrison St Paducah, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$915	$1.26	93d	1	0.90mi
710 Lone Oak Rd Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	620	$799	$1.29	93d	1	0.91mi
2991 Clay St Unit 06 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	974	$715	$0.73	93d	1	0.96mi
2741 Trimble St Unit 27195 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$725	$0.85	93d	1	0.98mi

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: Detached garageDriveway
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: One level
Construction: Wood sidingComposition shingle roof
Exterior features: Chain link partial fencingPillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

Kitchen: MicrowaveRefrigeratorCooktopOven
Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (as reported)
Flooring: CarpetVinylWood
Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)Central air conditioning
Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Fireplace
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $54,000 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $54,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $54,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $54,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $54,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $54,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $54,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $54,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-07-29

days on marketlisting id $54,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $54,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $54,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $54,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $54,000 Active 9 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $54,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $54,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $54,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-17

days on market $54,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-15

days on marketlisting id $54,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $54,000 Active 114 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $54,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $54,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $54,000 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-11

pricedays on market $54,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $59,900 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $59,900 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $59,900 Active 107 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $59,900 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $59,900 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $59,900 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $59,900 Active 103 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $59,900 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $59,900 Active 101 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $59,900 Active 100 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $59,900 Active 99 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $59,900 Active 98 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $59,900 Active 97 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $59,900 Active 95 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $59,900 Active 92 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $59,900 Active 91 DOM
2026-06-19

days on market $59,900 Active 89 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $59,900 Active 88 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $59,900 Active 87 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $59,900 Active 86 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $59,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-06-12

days on market $59,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $59,900 Active 79 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $59,900 Active 78 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $59,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $59,900 Active 73 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $10,871
− Mortgage interest: −$3,025
− Property taxes: −$810
− Insurance: −$270
− Repairs & maintenance: −$870
− Management: −$870
− Depreciation: −$1,571
Taxable income: $3,456

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$829
After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $24,525–$44,145 screening

This 1925 home requires significant repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. The exterior and interior need fresh paint, and the flooring is in poor condition. Repairs to the roof and siding are also necessary.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage to roof structure visible
Major Windows (windows) — Windows appear to be broken or missing
Major Electrical (electrical) — Exposed wiring and damaged electrical panel
Major Plumbing (plumbing) — Significant water damage and structural issues
Major Exterior (exterior) — Severe structural damage to exterior walls and roof

Repairs flagged

Major roof — Signs of significant damage
Major exterior siding — Severe weathering
Major flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
Major interior walls — Painted walls with significant wear

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace flooring — Improves living space and value ↑
Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Morgan Elementary School F KY #572/676 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Paducah Middle School F KY #168/217 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Paducah Tilghman High School F KY #97/254 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Paducah Independent
NCES district ID: 2104650
Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
Median HH income: $30,067
Composite: 23.41/100
National rank: #7896
State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Paducah

Score: 68/100
State rank: #197
US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Paducah, KY
County: McCracken · 64,237 people
City population: 30,856
Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
Population (ZIP): 29,384
Household income: $54,052
Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 64,237 people
By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -58.31%
Current HPI: 236.3013
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Healthcare	1	$118B
#39 Humana Louisville $117.8B
Food / Beverage	1	$7B
#358 Yum! Brands Louisville $7.1B

Price history

+227.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-07-10 Price Changed $54,000 WKRMLS
2026-04-15 Price Changed $59,900 WKRMLS
2026-03-26 Listed $54,000 ImagineMLS
2026-03-20 Listed $69,900 WKRMLS
1995-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-22.9%/yr

Latest (2022): $77 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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