6170 NE Colin Kelly Hwy · Madison, FL 32340

$75,480

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1981 1.00 ac lot Est $98k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This home is one of four units available as a package or to be sold separately. The home is very comfortalbe and appears to need only minor fixes other than one vanity that needs replacing. It has a very sturdy front porch. There is a large storage shed on the property as well. Currently rented. Speak with an agent for further details. Please do not disturb tenants and must have a Realtor with you to be property. Also Available MLS #'s 131355,131359,131356.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Screened porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Ceiling fan(s); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Central air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($942 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#437 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Madison (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #64 of 73 in FL (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 31 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($522 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,215 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.95%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $97,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 NE Delphinium Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	924 (-8%)	12mo	$90,000	$97	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $56,752
• Equity at exit: $67,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.33×
• Total profit: $154,824
• Equity at exit: $146,641

Cash invested: $21,134 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32340

• Home prices YoY: 32.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $942 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$396
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $75,480

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $267	+0% $246	+5% $224	+10% $203
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $208	+0% $246	+5% $283	+10% $320
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $265	base $246	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,870
• Closing costs: $2,264
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,480 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,480 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,480 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,480 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,480 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,480 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,480 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,480 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,480 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,480 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,480 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,480 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,480 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,480 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,480 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,480 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,480 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $75,480 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $858 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,228
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$377
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$905
• − Management: −$905
• − Depreciation: −$2,196
• Taxable income: $1,839
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $2,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison
• NCES district ID: 1201200
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,925
• Composite: 32.54/100
• National rank: #5693
• State rank: #64 of 73 in FL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #7819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,424

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,849 people
• By 2030: 15,883 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 13,861 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 11,918 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 7,810 · -53.6%
• By 2100: 4,684 · -72.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.3% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.13%
• Current HPI: 268.8459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $75,480 NFMLS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.