1442 Box Cir · Winder, GA 30680

$249,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 2005 $197/sqft · 18% below area Est $304k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1442 Box Circle, a beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhome offering low maintenance living Inside, you'll find new carpet and laminate flooring throughout, creating a fresh, move in ready feel. The functional floor plan features two spacious bedrooms, each with its own private full bath, plus a convenient half bath on the main level for guests. The main living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. Step outside to enjoy your private outdoor grilling area overlooking a peaceful pond, the perfect spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. Residents enjoy access to community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, and fitness center, providing both convenience and lifestyle all in one location. Whether you're looking for your next home or a smart investment opportunity, this townhome offers comfort, updates, and scenic views in a sought after community.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• PRIVATE OUTDOOR GRILLING AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• SCENIC VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($613/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.9% in Winder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#47 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $250k implies a 839% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,400 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.88%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,532
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -17.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Box Cir	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,268 (0%)	5mo	$240,000	$189	95
506 Yargo Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,188 (-6%)	10mo	$319,000	$269	58
63 Matthews School Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,281 (+1%)	22mo	$239,000	$187	54
463 Valley Trce	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,434 (+13%)	20mo	$285,000	$199	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-38,827
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-36,032
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30680

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,978/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,999

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $122	+0% $51	+5% $-20	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-30	+0% $51	+5% $133	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $115	base $51	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
370 Turtle Creek Dr Unit 1 Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	6d	1	0.18mi
370 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	3.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	5d	1	0.18mi
349 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1494	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.20mi
290 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	4d	1	0.23mi
247 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,885	$1.23	5d	1	0.26mi
281 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,700	$2.06	45d	1	0.27mi
97 Lily Dr Unit F Winder, GA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	14d	1	1.21mi
420 Foxdale Rd Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,885	$1.25	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Under Contract 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Welcome to 1442 Box Circle, a beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhome offering low maintenance living Inside, you'll find new carpet and laminate flooring throughout, creating a fresh, move in ready feel. The functional floor plan features two spacious bedrooms, each with its own private full bath, plus a convenient half bath on the main level for guests. The main living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. Step outside to enjoy your private outdoor grilling area overlooking a peaceful pond, the perfect spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. Residents enjoy access to community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, and fitness center, providing both convenience and lifestyle all in one location. Whether you're looking for your next home or a smart investment opportunity, this townhome offers comfort, updates, and scenic views in a sought after community.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $249,900 New 973-char remark

   Show marketing remark (973 chars)

   Welcome to 1442 Box Circle, a beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath townhome offering low maintenance living Inside, you'll find new carpet and laminate flooring throughout, creating a fresh, move in ready feel. The functional floor plan features two spacious bedrooms, each with its own private full bath, plus a convenient half bath on the main level for guests. The main living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space, making everyday living and entertaining effortless. Step outside to enjoy your private outdoor grilling area overlooking a peaceful pond, the perfect spot for morning coffee or unwinding at the end of the day. Residents enjoy access to community amenities including a pool, clubhouse, and fitness center, providing both convenience and lifestyle all in one location. Whether you're looking for your next home or a smart investment opportunity, this townhome offers comfort, updates, and scenic views in a sought after community.

3. 2008-02-15
   historical
4. 2006-04-19
   listed $114,900
5. 2005-07-22
   soldstatus $26,620

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,978 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,299 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 16.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,768
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,978
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$3,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $1,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Winder

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #5120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winder, GA
• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 48,388
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 48,388
• Household income: $80,956
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.21%
• Current HPI: 229.5804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+838.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $249,900 GAMLS
• 2008-02-15 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2006-04-19 Listed $114,900 Hive MLS
• 2005-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $26,620 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,978 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.