2015 Oak Dr · Amarillo, TX 79107

$99,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1952 $108/sqft · 41% above area Est $71k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't Procrastinate . .. WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN . .. . This Hamlet home you will find beautiful newly stained wood floors, fresh paint, newer windows and in the kitchen a large pantry area. The den is also very spacious. Outside you will find a large back yard as well a nice front porch to enjoy spring and summer evenings. Don't wait call today .

Key facts

• Large pantry area
• Nice front porch
• Large back yard

Tags

• NEWLY STAINED WOOD FLOORS
• LARGE PANTRY AREA
• LARGE BACK YARD
• NICE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Amarillo ISD (urban): math 44% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #336 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,214 units permitted in Potter County in 2024 (650 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,515 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,622
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: 40.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,368
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $15,701
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79107

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,520/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $873

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $244	+0% $216	+5% $188	+10% $159
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $170	+0% $216	+5% $261	+10% $306
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $241	base $216	+0.5pp $190	+1.0pp $164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Redwood St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	926	$1,350	$1.46	45d	1	0.50mi
2904 N Mirror St Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	608	$1,050	$1.73	22d	1	0.77mi
509 Jason Ave Amarillo, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$962	$1.03	14d	1	0.91mi
1819 Darden St Amarillo, TX	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	45d	1	1.20mi
4005 Hilltop Dr Apt C Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	784	$850	$1.08	22d	1	1.27mi
4005 Hilltop Dr Apt D Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	924	$1,250	$1.35	22d	1	1.27mi
1220 N Nelson St Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	22d	1	1.36mi
2405 Rule St Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$850	$1.18	45d	1	1.40mi
823 N Nelson St Amarillo, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$900	$0.90	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $99,500 Pending 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,500 Active Under Contract 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,500 Active Under Contract 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,500 Active Under Contract 54 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,500 Active Under Contract 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $99,500 Active Under Contract 52 DOM
7. 2026-04-09
   listed $99,500 Active 353-char remark

   Show marketing remark (353 chars)

   Don't Procrastinate . .. WHY RENT WHEN YOU CAN OWN . .. . This Hamlet home you will find beautiful newly stained wood floors, fresh paint, newer windows and in the kitchen a large pantry area. The den is also very spacious. Outside you will find a large back yard as well a nice front porch to enjoy spring and summer evenings. Don't wait call today .

8. 2011-10-24
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,821 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$301/yr (+$25/mo · 19.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,520
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,100
• − Management: −$1,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $1,069
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$257
• After-tax cash flow: $2,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amarillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808130
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,478
• Composite: 35.96/100
• National rank: #4798
• State rank: #336 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Potter County · 72,216 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,662
• Household income: $40,671
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Potter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 121,296 people
• By 2030: 120,883 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 119,668 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 117,788 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 110,250 · -9.1%
• By 2100: 92,923 · -23.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% Black 25% Two or more races 17% White 16% Asian 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Ukrainian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Potter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.4) · D 27.3% · R 71.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.4 2020: R+38.7 2016: R+41.9 2012: R+44.6 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.01%
• Current HPI: 215.7976
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $99,500 AARMLS
• 2011-10-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,520 · +19.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.