12721 W Greenway Rd #213 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$68,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured · 160 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2000 Good condition $63/sqft · 16% below area Est $82k · 16% under ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.4

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 3 bedroom, 2 bath home in an all ages community. Freshly pained inside and outside, Newer A/C, all-new flooring, updated kitchen and bathrooms. Plus, convenient extra storage room! Park amenities include swimming pool, jacuzzi, and more. Financing available! Come see this move-in ready home before it's gone!

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $69k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $658 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.8% vs local median 4.4% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Surprise Elementary School (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #502 of 1,109 statewide, top 45%, 771 students, 72% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 41% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 178 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $476 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,632 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.94%
• DSCR: 2.82
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,460
• List price: $68,900
• Delta: -16.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12721 W Greenway Rd #184	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+5%)	3mo	$48,000	$42	89
12721 W Greenway Way #200	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+5%)	5mo	$73,000	$64	82
12721 W Greenway Rd #24	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,088 (0%)	16mo	$85,000	$78	81
15780 N Sunny Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+3%)	4mo	$197,000	$176	72
12721 W Greenway Rd #136	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-4%)	15mo	$98,000	$94	70
12721 W Greenway Rd #80	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	10mo	$83,990	$69	67
12721 W Greenway Rd #175	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+5%)	24mo	$80,000	$70	66
12721 W Greenway Rd #6	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+12%)	14mo	$72,000	$59	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $26,674
• Equity at exit: $10,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $61,423
• Equity at exit: $5,957

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $72,990 ($66/sqft)
• Median days on market: 101 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $658

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $706	-5% $682	+0% $658	+5% $634	+10% $610
Rent	-10% $545	-5% $601	+0% $658	+5% $715	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $693	-0.5pp $676	base $658	+0.5pp $640	+1.0pp $622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	73d	4	0.22mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	43d	1	0.25mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	53d	1	0.25mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	93d	1	0.40mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	48d	1	0.44mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	73d	1	0.44mi
13145 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,989	$1.33	36d	1	0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	34d	1	0.51mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	23d	1	0.51mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	43d	1	0.55mi
13153 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,950	$1.32	15d	1	0.55mi
13200 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,695	$1.32	2d	1	0.58mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,649	$1.26	9d	2	0.60mi
14417 N Gil Balcome Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,900	$1.31	43d	1	0.66mi
12741 W Tasha Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.67mi
13006 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,716	$1.31	29d	1	0.70mi
13233 W Ironwood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1479	$2,175	$1.47	7d	1	0.70mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Unit 1 Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	725	$1,300	$1.79	54d	1	0.72mi
13344 W Desert Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,995	$1.56	10d	1	0.74mi
13314 W Mauna Loa Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,355	$1.88	93d	1	0.76mi
13015 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,816	$1.39	7d	1	0.77mi
13223 W Desert Rock Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,000	$1.39	27d	1	0.81mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	2d	17	0.82mi
13148 W Redfield Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,855	$1.35	43d	1	0.87mi
13220 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,695	$1.50	48d	1	0.93mi
13137 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,785	$1.58	13d	1	0.93mi
12731 W Sharon Dr El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	66d	1	0.95mi
13177 W Calavar Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,710	$1.48	24d	1	0.95mi
12954 W Voltaire Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,755	$1.19	9d	1	0.99mi
13939 N 132nd Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1297	$3,500	$2.70	93d	1	1.00mi
13601 N 129th Dr El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	17d	1	1.04mi
12430 W Willow Ave El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$5,900	$4.99	2d	1	1.05mi
14005 N Palm St Unit 4 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	93d	1	1.06mi
15542 N 136th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,950	$1.44	38d	1	1.07mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 14 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	93d	1	1.08mi
13913 N Palm St Unit 12 El Mirage, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	51d	1	1.08mi
13338 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,096	$1.48	73d	1	1.09mi
13342 W Canyon Creek Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,750	$1.23	73d	1	1.10mi
13331 W Boca Raton Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,965	$1.39	7d	1	1.11mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	71d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $68,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $68,900 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $68,900 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $68,900 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $68,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $69,500 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $69,500 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $69,500 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $69,500 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $69,500 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $69,500 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $69,500 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $69,500 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $69,500 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $69,500 Active 137 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $69,500 Active 136 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $69,500 Active 135 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 134 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 133 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $69,500 Active 132 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $69,500 Active 131 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 130 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 128 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,500 Active 127 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $69,500 Active 126 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $69,500 Active 125 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 124 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 123 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $69,500 Active 122 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $69,500 Active 121 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $69,500 Active 120 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $69,500 Active 119 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $69,500 Active 118 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $69,500 Active 117 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $69,500 Active 115 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $69,500 Active 113 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $69,500 Active 112 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $69,500 Active 109 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $69,500 Active 108 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $69,500 Active 107 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $69,500 Active 106 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $69,500 Active 104 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $69,500 Active 100 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 99 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,500 Active 98 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,500 Active 95 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,500 Active 94 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,500 Active 93 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $7,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,735
• After-tax cash flow: $6,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,440–$16,320 screening

This beautifully updated 3-bedroom home in an all-ages community is move-in ready with fresh paint and new flooring. Potential buyers will appreciate the curb appeal and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in bedroom — Fresh carpet improves aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Surprise Elementary School F AZ #502/1,109 Nat'l #24,773/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $73,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $74,500 ARMLS