25 Holbrook St · Lackawanna, NY 14218

$109,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1951 3,440 sqft lot Est $152k · 28% under ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 3,440 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 115 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.4% in Lackawanna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#254 in NY, #4,026 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lackawanna City School District (suburban): math 19% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #588 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Martin Road Elementary School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,944 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 560 students, 86% FRL); Lackawanna Middle School (math 5% / reading 27%, grade F, #702 of 729 statewide, top 96%, 407 students, 80% FRL); Lackawanna High School (math 72%, 560 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $100,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.14%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
161 Wilmuth Ave	0.20mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,243 (+6%)	2mo	$142,000	$114	68
61 Holbrook St	0.06mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,290 (+10%)	6mo	$155,000	$120	64
2694 Hamburg Tpke	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,162 (-1%)	3mo	$179,900	$155	63
102 Pine St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-1%)	1mo	$155,000	$134	59
21 Elm St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,150 (-2%)	11mo	$150,000	$130	50
76 Walnut St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-8%)	7mo	$170,000	$158	44
30 Madison Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,230 (+5%)	14mo	$185,000	$150	42
38 Madison Ave	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,076 (-8%)	15mo	$143,000	$133	41
44 Lincoln Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-10%)	9mo	$73,000	$69	35
82 Walnut St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,067 (-9%)	18mo	$107,000	$100	33
117 Walnut St	0.69mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,056 (-10%)	19mo	$130,000	$123	25
101 Elm St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,292 (+10%)	14mo	$168,000	$130	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,736
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $28,989
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14218

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,493/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,029

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $353	+0% $322	+5% $291	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $265	+0% $322	+5% $378	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $350	base $322	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-11-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-23
   price $109,900
3. 2025-08-12
   price $125,000
4. 2025-07-22
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: +$182/yr (+$15/mo · 12.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,493
• − Insurance: −$1,347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $2,285
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$548
• After-tax cash flow: $3,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lackawanna City School District
• NCES district ID: 3616440
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,041
• Composite: 19.76/100
• National rank: #8708
• State rank: #588 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lackawanna

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #4026

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lackawanna, NY
• City population: 20,661
• Population (ZIP): 20,661

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.44%
• Current HPI: 389.0188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-23 Price Changed $109,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $125,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $150,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,493 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.