7070 Bartlett Ct · Ellenton, FL 34222

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,665 sqft · Manufactured · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $248k · 48% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to The Oaks at Colony Cove, a 55+ age-qualified, GATED active and vibrant community where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a stunning, custom Palm Harbor Vero with Full Rear Porch floor plan 2-bedroom, 2-bath with Den home for sale featuring 1,665 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Located in Ellenton FL, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, high ceilings, and luxury amenities. The large kitchen boasts an impressive amount of countertop space and storage, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious owner's suite offers

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 69 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $139,000

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Home design: Vero plan with garage; Single-family property
• Construction: Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Full porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction inventory)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $733 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.36%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $248,085
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,606 (-4%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	75
85 Meadow Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,620 (-3%)	11mo	$241,000	$149	75
165 Nightingale Cir	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,720 (+3%)	7mo	$290,000	$169	70
3445 71st Ave E	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,485 (-11%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	68
181 Nightingale Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (-3%)	6mo	$190,000	$117	67
3607 70th Ave E	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,434 (-14%)	2mo	$275,000	$192	61
166 Nightingale Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-6%)	12mo	$187,000	$119	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $25,834
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $82,765
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,057 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $733

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $822	-5% $778	+0% $733	+5% $689	+10% $644
Rent	-10% $571	-5% $652	+0% $733	+5% $815	+10% $896
Rate	-1.0pp $798	-0.5pp $766	base $733	+0.5pp $700	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	3d	1	0.52mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	21d	1	0.55mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	3d	1	0.55mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	0.58mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	0.70mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	3d	1	0.72mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	0.84mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	0.84mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.94mi
9039 41st St E Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,445	$1.47	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $129,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,000 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $7,173
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,722
• After-tax cash flow: $7,079/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 55+ age-qualified home in The Oaks at Colony Cove is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace blinds with energy-efficient windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B