512 Toxaway Ct · Fayetteville, NC 28314

$147,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · Other public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1985 $150/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

charming two bedroom/2 bathroom duplex located close to Fort Bragg. Updated flooring, open concept, dining room, fireplace and large spacious deck complete this wonderful home. Waterfront view! Perfect for an investor to use as a rental property .

Key facts

• Waterfront view
• Open concept
• Dining room

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT
• DINING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• LARGE SPACIOUS DECK
• WATERFRONT VIEW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: THE LAKES; Zoning: PND - Planned Neighborhood
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $150 monthly fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Exterior features: Deck; Property has a view; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Fireplace with masonry surround; 6 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $148k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 435 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $148k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 76% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,075 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.42%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-16,131
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,259
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28314

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,923/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,450

Max offer price $147,500

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $159	+0% $118	+5% $76	+10% $34
Rent	-10% $-9	-5% $54	+0% $118	+5% $181	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $155	base $118	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
419 Georgetown Cir Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1648	$1,500	$0.91	24d	1	0.15mi
3374 Starboard Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1481	$2,150	$1.45	15d	1	0.20mi
321 Bahama Loop Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1759	$2,100	$1.19	15d	1	0.39mi
5800 Lagu Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,850	$1.07	15d	1	0.44mi
3330 Harbour Pointe Pl #12 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,700	$1.21	15d	1	0.46mi
5831 Waters Edge Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,545	$1.15	24d	1	0.53mi
5725 Ivanhoe Ct Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,300	$1.35	15d	6	0.54mi
457 Lands End Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	3.0	1545	$1,895	$1.23	24d	1	0.56mi
5761 Waterwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,600	$1.10	22d	1	0.57mi
5817 Horton Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,650	$0.98	24d	1	0.58mi
420 Mangum Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1127	$1,550	$1.38	24d	1	0.62mi
5713 Waterwood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	22d	1	0.64mi
5591 Bellflower St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,575	$1.24	15d	1	0.64mi
7298 Ryan St Fayetteville, NC	4.0	1.5	1315	$1,400	$1.06	24d	1	0.65mi
417 Watergap Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	3.0	1648	$1,950	$1.18	24d	1	0.65mi
7252 Ainsley St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0	1265	$1,299	$1.03	24d	1	0.66mi
202 Bertram Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,300	$1.11	15d	1	0.67mi
3311 Woodhill Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,730	$1.45	15d	42	0.67mi
5650 Netherfield Pl Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,410	$1.37	15d	38	0.68mi
5508 Faith Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1106	$1,439	$1.30	22d	16	0.75mi
5508 Faith Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1106	$1,439	$1.30	15d	10	0.75mi
495 Stiles Pl Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,250	$0.96	15d	1	0.81mi
349 Waterdown Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,350	$1.03	24d	1	0.81mi
812 Crescent Commons Way Fayetteville, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$1,385	$1.44	15d	10	0.82mi
246 Partners Way Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	24d	1	0.85mi
230 Sawtooth Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,550	$1.49	15d	14	0.89mi
679 Bartons Landing Pl Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,150	$1.00	24d	1	0.90mi
679 Bartons Landing Pl Unit 6 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,200	$1.05	24d	1	0.90mi
564 Jennings Farm Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,400	$0.91	24d	1	0.90mi
338 Milburn Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1128	$1,550	$1.37	24d	1	0.91mi
3500 Carlson Bay Ct Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,350	$1.59	15d	4	0.93mi
6309 Easthampton Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1776	$1,600	$0.90	24d	1	0.94mi
672 Bartons Landing Pl Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1145	$1,100	$0.96	15d	1	0.96mi
6793 Candlewood Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,475	$1.19	15d	1	0.98mi
425 Windermere Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	24d	1	0.99mi
267 Waterdown Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,325	$1.01	24d	1	0.99mi
111 Grande Oaks Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$1,645	$1.37	15d	46	1.00mi
663 Bartons Landing Pl Unit 2 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,200	$1.04	15d	1	1.01mi
295 Warton Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,325	$1.01	15d	1	1.01mi
698 Bartons Landing Pl #5 Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,100	$0.97	24d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $147,500 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $147,500 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $149,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $152,500 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $152,500 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $152,500 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $152,500 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $152,500 Active 30 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $152,500 Active 29 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $152,500 Active 28 DOM
18. 2026-05-02
    listed $152,500 Active
19. 2024-03-26
    historical $1,190
20. 2024-03-21
    listed $1,190
21. 2024-03-21
    historical $1,190
22. 2024-03-13
    listed $1,190
23. 1993-11-03
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 76% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$1,923
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,535
• − Management: −$1,535
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$216
• After-tax cash flow: $1,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,834
• Household income: $62,249
• Rent vs Own: 52.6% rent · 47.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2511.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.20%
• Current HPI: 231.873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.11%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+138.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Listed $152,500 LPRMLS
• 2024-03-26 Rental Removed $1,190 TMLS
• 2024-03-21 Listed for Rent $1,190 TMLS
• 2024-03-21 Rental Removed $1,190 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-13 Listed for Rent $1,190 APPFOLIO
• 1993-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,923 · +49.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.