3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #153 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 170 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ · no rentals Built 2005 Good condition $92/sqft · 23% below area Est $144k · 23% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.7

Listing remarks MLS

New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $907 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wildfire Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #132 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 457 students, 7% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 79% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.33%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $143,500
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -23.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #87	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+2%)	1mo	$110,000	$90	93
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	4mo	$152,000	$122	87
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	3mo	$132,000	$106	86
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #158	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,222 (+2%)	14mo	$150,000	$123	82
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	6mo	$159,000	$123	79
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #39	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+4%)	12mo	$158,000	$126	75
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #76	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+13%)	0mo	$125,000	$92	74
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #67	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+10%)	9mo	$172,000	$131	73
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #230	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	21mo	$167,000	$134	73
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #149	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	16mo	$152,900	$123	72
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #36	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,024 (-15%)	6mo	$85,000	$83	67
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #80	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+13%)	14mo	$228,500	$169	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $37,822
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.21×
• Total profit: $98,819
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.4 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $145,000 ($100/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +19.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $907

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $983	-5% $945	+0% $907	+5% $869	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $740	-5% $824	+0% $907	+5% $990	+10% $1,074
Rate	-1.0pp $962	-0.5pp $935	base $907	+0.5pp $878	+1.0pp $849

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$2,600	$1.85	67d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	93d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1539	$2,950	$1.92	2d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1388	$2,725	$1.96	46d	1	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1378	$2,900	$2.10	7d	1	0.70mi
21862 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,200	$1.52	42d	1	0.90mi
21808 N 40th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$2,300	$1.81	2d	1	0.94mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	93d	1	1.02mi
21827 N 40th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1449	$2,600	$1.79	47d	1	1.03mi
3660 E Zachary Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1444	$2,700	$1.87	40d	1	1.23mi
20750 N 38th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1407	$2,295	$1.63	47d	1	1.44mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$2,500	$1.89	38d	4	1.49mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$1,749	$1.32	67d	4	1.49mi
4709 E Abraham Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1322	$2,495	$1.89	31d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $110,000 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $110,000 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $110,000 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $110,000 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $110,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 161 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $110,000 Active 160 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $110,000 Active 159 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $110,000 Active 157 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $110,000 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $110,000 Active 154 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $110,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $110,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $110,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 148 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 147 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 145 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 144 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 141 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 131 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
50. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $9,709
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,330
• After-tax cash flow: $8,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,000–$18,000 screening

This 2005 manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including new flooring and appliances. It's move-in ready and located in a desirable community with amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves curb appeal and safety. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 56/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wildfire Elementary School B AZ #132/1,109 Nat'l #6,818/41,679 Middle Explorer Middle School B- AZ #11/218 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Pinnacle High School D+ AZ #35/381 Nat'l #5,269/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $150,000 ARMLS