3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #153 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 122 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $104/sqft · 16% below area Est $148k · 16% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wildfire Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #132 of 1,109 statewide, top 12%, 457 students, 7% FRL); Explorer Middle School (math 57% / reading 53%, grade B-, #11 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 6% FRL); Pinnacle High School (math 49% / reading 54%, grade D+, #35 of 381 statewide, top 9%, 2,479 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools average 7% FRL vs 29% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 56% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.19%
• DSCR: 3.23
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,500
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -15.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	3mo	$152,000	$122	88
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	2mo	$132,000	$106	87
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #158	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,222 (+2%)	12mo	$150,000	$123	84
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	4mo	$159,000	$123	80
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #39	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (+4%)	10mo	$158,000	$126	77
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #67	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,316 (+10%)	8mo	$172,000	$131	74
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #230	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	20mo	$167,000	$134	74
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #149	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+4%)	14mo	$152,900	$123	73
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #36	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,024 (-15%)	5mo	$85,000	$83	68
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #37	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,280 (+7%)	22mo	$126,000	$98	67
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #80	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,352 (+13%)	13mo	$228,500	$169	66
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #398	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-10%)	21mo	$85,000	$79	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $70,023
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $169,167
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $1,464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,550	-5% $1,507	+0% $1,464	+5% $1,421	+10% $1,377
Rent	-10% $1,231	-5% $1,347	+0% $1,464	+5% $1,580	+10% $1,697
Rate	-1.0pp $1,527	-0.5pp $1,496	base $1,464	+0.5pp $1,431	+1.0pp $1,398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	45d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$2,600	$1.85	19d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd #1338 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1276	$2,700	$2.12	0d	1	0.79mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	45d	1	1.02mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$1,749	$1.32	19d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $125,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

17. 2026-05-07
    price $130,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

18. 2026-03-29
    price $135,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

19. 2026-03-17
    price $145,000 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

20. 2026-02-19
    listed $150,000 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    New Plank flooring just went in! Exterior paint and new water heater too! Come see this 2005 home with 2 bedrooms plus a den. The HVAC went in May of 2020. You can move right in. The manned guard 24/7 provides security and peace of mind. 9 hole executive golf course and heated pool are on site along with pickleball courts and a clubhouse. This is a 55+ community in Desert Ridge that is close to Mayo Clinic, the 101, High Street and plenty of shopping. The Monthly land lease is $950 and there is a 2 pet limit 30 lbs each. Make this your full time home or a great lock and leave for snowbirds. No rentals here. Must be owner occupied. Quiet and convenient makes this subdivison special. Come see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,828
• − Management: −$2,828
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $16,561
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,975
• After-tax cash flow: $13,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2005 manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, including new flooring and appliances. It's move-in ready and located in a desirable community with amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves curb appeal and safety.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace outdoor light fixtures — Improves curb appeal and safety. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $150,000 ARMLS