415 Columbia Rd NW · Washington, DC 20001

$389,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Townhouse public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1915 1,350 sqft lot Est $525k · 26% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR ALERT — significant upside potential at 415 Columbia Road, NW. Property delivered vacant and ready for full renovation with expansion opportunity. Full rehab needed. Unmatched location across from McMillian Reservoir water views, creating premium resale appeal and differentiated market positioning. Within blocks of the Reservoir District redevelopment, which is driving future demand and accelerating neighborhood appreciation. Strong ARV potential supported by surrounding redevelopment activity. Ideal property for vertical or rear footprint expansion, income-producing redesign, or multi-unit conversion where permissible. Buyers should conduct independent zoning verification fo

Key facts

• Built 1915
• Listed 97 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $322k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $322k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bruce-Monroe Es At Park View (433 students, 0% FRL); Macfarland Ms (528 students, 0% FRL); Roosevelt Hs (913 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 377 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $109k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $322,448 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.63%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $524,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Columbia Rd NW	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$395,000	$366	99
3541 11th St NW #202	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,095 (+1%)	0mo	$635,000	$580	60
2723 Sherman Ave NW	0.42mi	2/1.5 (-1)	986 (-9%)	1mo	$675,000	$685	58
776 Lamont St NW	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (-10%)	5mo	$522,500	$536	57
1390 Kenyon St NW #717	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,102 (+2%)	3mo	$425,000	$386	52
1221 Kenyon St NW #2	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,157 (+7%)	4mo	$655,000	$566	50
1121 Harvard St NW Unit F	0.52mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,182 (+9%)	1mo	$575,000	$486	48
1361 Irving St NW #3	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (+6%)	0mo	$470,000	$409	48
36 Channing St NW Unit A	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	2mo	$420,000	$350	46
158 Bryant St NW #2	0.62mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,200 (+11%)	0mo	$712,500	$594	41
1390 Kenyon St NW #712	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	982 (-9%)	3mo	$338,000	$344	40
73 Hawthorne Ct NE #73	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,214 (+12%)	2mo	$375,000	$309	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-57,603
• Equity at exit: $58,135

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-67,852
• Equity at exit: $33,711

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20001

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 377
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,224 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,216/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$677
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,922

Max offer price $389,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $460	-5% $349	+0% $239	+5% $129	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $112	+0% $239	+5% $366	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $338	base $239	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Columbia Rd NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1350	$4,950	$3.67	20d	1	0.06mi
429 Kenyon St NW Apt T2 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	861	$2,395	$2.78	26d	1	0.12mi
440 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1210	$3,600	$2.98	26d	1	0.16mi
600 Keefer Pl NW Unit 3 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$2,390	$2.99	26d	1	0.17mi
3205 Georgia Ave NW #101 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	800	$3,000	$3.75	26d	1	0.24mi
2833 Georgia Ave NW Unit 2833-301 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	833	$2,650	$3.18	26d	1	0.24mi
2833 Georgia Ave NW Unit 2833-102 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	833	$2,648	$3.18	26d	1	0.24mi
636 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1250	$3,600	$2.88	21d	1	0.25mi
2910 Georgia Ave NW Unit C04 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	805	$3,100	$3.85	26d	1	0.25mi
3225 Georgia Ave NW Unit 301 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	855	$2,450	$2.87	26d	1	0.28mi
3225 Georgia Ave NW Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0	855	$2,399	$2.81	16d	2	0.28mi
3225 Georgia Ave NW Apt 201 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	855	$2,399	$2.81	6d	1	0.28mi
654 Girard St NW Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	568	$2,089	$3.68	26d	1	0.30mi
3332 Georgia Ave NW Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	750	$3,299	$4.40	26d	1	0.33mi
3552 Warder St NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,750	$2.50	22d	1	0.34mi
3552 Warder St NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1240	$3,995	$3.22	26d	1	0.34mi
713 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$3,266	$4.38	0d	7	0.35mi
732 Girard St NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1188	$3,995	$3.36	26d	1	0.35mi
3101 Sherman Ave NW Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	619	$2,600	$4.20	4d	2	0.38mi
746 Morton St NW #1 Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	1020	$3,600	$3.53	9d	1	0.38mi
763 Girard St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,950	$3.04	9d	1	0.38mi
775 Kenyon St NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1399	$3,500	$2.50	16d	1	0.39mi
3538 6th St NW Unit 3538-005 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	700	$3,429	$4.90	26d	1	0.39mi
719 Euclid St NW Unit 4 Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	800	$2,300	$2.88	26d	1	0.39mi
3573 Warder St NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1438	$3,100	$2.16	26d	1	0.40mi
646 Newton Pl NW #201 Washington, DC	2.0	2.5	1063	$4,000	$3.76	6d	1	0.40mi
2717 Sherman Ave NW #1 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	843	$3,200	$3.80	16d	1	0.43mi
1012 Harvard St NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	940	$3,150	$3.35	13d	1	0.44mi
3557 Georgia Ave NW Washington, DC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	689	$3,099	$4.49	0d	11	0.44mi
756 Park Rd NW #1 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	805	$2,895	$3.60	26d	1	0.45mi
3318 Sherman Ave NW Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	695	$2,325	$3.35	24d	2	0.46mi
2711 11th St NW Unit C Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,850	$2.85	20d	1	0.50mi
3321 11th St NW Unit 3 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	890	$2,495	$2.80	18d	1	0.50mi
3613 New Hampshire Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	26d	1	0.51mi
1101 Fairmont St NW #7 Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	760	$3,200	$4.21	20d	1	0.52mi
1118 Girard St NW Unit B Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	980	$2,875	$2.93	26d	1	0.53mi
911 Monroe St NW Unit 2A Washington, DC	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	26d	1	0.53mi
1017 Monroe St NW #2 Washington, DC	2.0	1.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	3d	1	0.57mi
3030 Gentain CT NE Washington, DC	2.0	1.5	900	$2,650	$2.94	6d	1	0.57mi
2829 13th St NW Washington, DC	2.0	2.0	1330	$3,600	$2.71	9d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   price $389,900
3. 2026-02-17
   status Active
4. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-13
   listed $499,000 Active
6. 2026-01-06
   historical $499,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,216 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,797 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$581/yr (+$48/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$1,216
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,096
• − Management: −$3,096
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$3,845
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$923
• After-tax cash flow: $3,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 44,616
• Household income: $138,059
• Rent vs Own: 66.6% rent · 33.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3130.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -859.30%
• Current HPI: 400.1329
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.75%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

-21.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $389,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $499,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Coming Soon $499,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,216 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.