0075 Prospector Rd Unit 8303-4 Winter Interest · Aspen, CO 81611

$175,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,700 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

Built 2001 $103/sqft · 137% above area $2165/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unit has spectacular views facing the Highlands ski slope and pool from the windows in every room. Enjoy the views from the outdoor deck. Elkhorn Lodge. 1/12th Interest with great weeks. Feb 21- March 7 and Aug 22-29 2026, Plus a float week. Feb 27 - March 13, 2027, and Sept 4-11, 2027, plus a float week. The Ritz Carlton Club is a luxury ski-in, ski-out accommodation at Aspen Highlands, offering luxury mountain living in a spacious three-bedroom condominium. The interior has warm wood finishes and rich leather couches complemented by a natural stone fireplace. There is a spacious living area and kitchen, which is great for entertaining or stretching out after a great day on the slopes. The bedrooms feature Frette linens and flatscreen TVs, and bathrooms have heated Italian marble floors and double vanities. Enjoy air conditioning and complimentary Wi-Fi in all rooms. Common amenities at the Ritz-Carlton Club include the Members' Lounge with hosted apres-ski gatherings, two slopeside heated pools and hot tubs, a private spa and fitness center, and heated garage parking. Guests also receive summer golf privileges at exclusive Roaring Fork Valley clubs. The Ritz-Carlton Aspen offers two on-site dining options. The full-service Willow Creek Bistro serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Cafe Sienna has gourmet grab-and-go items. Guests receive complimentary transportation to and from Aspen Airport and downtown Aspen, and the on-site concierge can arrange any Aspen activity. There are trading privileges with other Ritz Carlton Club Residence properties in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco.

Key facts

• Outdoor deck
• Double vanities
• Spectacular views

Tags

• SPECTACULAR VIEWS
• OUTDOOR DECK
• SKI-IN SKI-OUT ACCOMMODATIONS
• NATURAL STONE FIREPLACE
• HEATED ITALIAN MARBLE FLOORS
• DOUBLE VANITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $9,634/mo this rent would consume 140% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.75%
• DSCR: 5.62
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,951
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 136.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $417,517
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.40×
• Total profit: $1,146,399
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$2,165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,023
• Net cashflow: $4,236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,271

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,357	-5% $4,297	+0% $4,236	+5% $4,176	+10% $4,115
Rent	-10% $3,475	-5% $3,856	+0% $4,236	+5% $4,617	+10% $4,997
Rate	-1.0pp $4,325	-0.5pp $4,281	base $4,236	+0.5pp $4,191	+1.0pp $4,145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2,165 · $25,980/yr
• Likely covers: internetpoolgymdoorman

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 194 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 192 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2025-11-28
    listed $175,000 Active 1630-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1630 chars)

    This unit has spectacular views facing the Highlands ski slope and pool from the windows in every room. Enjoy the views from the outdoor deck. Elkhorn Lodge. 1/12th Interest with great weeks. Feb 21- March 7 and Aug 22-29 2026, Plus a float week. Feb 27 - March 13, 2027, and Sept 4-11, 2027, plus a float week. The Ritz Carlton Club is a luxury ski-in, ski-out accommodation at Aspen Highlands, offering luxury mountain living in a spacious three-bedroom condominium. The interior has warm wood finishes and rich leather couches complemented by a natural stone fireplace. There is a spacious living area and kitchen, which is great for entertaining or stretching out after a great day on the slopes. The bedrooms feature Frette linens and flatscreen TVs, and bathrooms have heated Italian marble floors and double vanities. Enjoy air conditioning and complimentary Wi-Fi in all rooms. Common amenities at the Ritz-Carlton Club include the Members' Lounge with hosted apres-ski gatherings, two slopeside heated pools and hot tubs, a private spa and fitness center, and heated garage parking. Guests also receive summer golf privileges at exclusive Roaring Fork Valley clubs. The Ritz-Carlton Aspen offers two on-site dining options. The full-service Willow Creek Bistro serves breakfast, lunch, and dinner. Cafe Sienna has gourmet grab-and-go items. Guests receive complimentary transportation to and from Aspen Airport and downtown Aspen, and the on-site concierge can arrange any Aspen activity. There are trading privileges with other Ritz Carlton Club Residence properties in St. Thomas, Vail, Lake Tahoe and San Francisco.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $115,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,249
• − Management: −$9,249
• − HOA: −$25,980
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $52,736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,657
• After-tax cash flow: $38,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aspen, CO
• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-28 Listed $175,000 AGMLS