37502 Oakview Cir · Dade City, FL 33523

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1979 7,860 sqft lot Est $236k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Virtually Staged. Beautifully fully renovated block home located in a NO FLOOD ZONE with NO HOA packed with upgrades and ready for new owners. It boasts a new roof (2023), new AC (2022), and luxurious porcelain tiles and wood laminate flooring throughout. The interior and exterior have been freshly painted, creating a modern, fresh look. The heart of the home is the kitchen, featuring granite countertops, updated stainless steel appliances, and sleek cabinetry. The bathroom has been updated with a modern style. This property stands out on an expansive 7,860 sq. ft. lot, offering rare space and privacy. Perfectly situated in a premier, highly sought-af

Key facts

• Porcelain tiles
• New ac
• New roof

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED BLOCK HOME
• NEW ROOF
• NEW AC
• PORCELAIN TILES
• WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential - Single Family Residence; Zoning: RES
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; No condo or monthly fees
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Security: Private mailbox
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot of about 0.18 acres
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Solid surface and stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combo; Solid surface counters; Stone counters; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (inside); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-727/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (4.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $155k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,087 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,800
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14734 11th St	0.20mi	3/2.0	988 (-6%)	9mo	$240,000	$243	74
37045 North Ave	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,020 (-3%)	2mo	$230,000	$225	70
14703 State St	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-1%)	24mo	$215,000	$207	68
14431 Lawrence St	0.33mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,090 (+4%)	9mo	$208,500	$191	64
15306 16th St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,089 (+4%)	7mo	$253,000	$232	61
37720 Church Ave	0.71mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,040 (-1%)	14mo	$305,000	$293	47
14552 Osceola St	0.19mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	21mo	$230,000	$192	41
15131 Jeanie Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	968 (-8%)	21mo	$163,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $120,795
• Equity at exit: $206,301

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $358,629
• Equity at exit: $444,897

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $878/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,818

Max offer price $218,291

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $4	+0% $-61	+5% $-125	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-198	-5% $-129	+0% $-61	+5% $8	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $-2	base $-61	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14635 State St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,731	$1.66	0d	1	0.19mi
37802 Whitehouse Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	1344	$1,150	$0.86	24d	1	0.32mi
37540 Martin Luther King Blvd Unit A Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$1,200	$1.53	25d	1	0.33mi
37329 Magnolia Ave Unit 1234471P Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1216	$3,331	$2.74	0d	1	0.52mi
13921 19th St Unit 1234474P Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,013	$2.15	17d	1	0.95mi
13917 2nd St Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	1312	$1,950	$1.49	25d	1	1.10mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	0d	1	1.21mi
13650 5th St Dade City, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	13d	1	1.21mi
14907 Lucca Way Unit 1 Dade City, FL	3.0	2.5	1386	$2,100	$1.52	25d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   price $229,000
3. 2026-03-10
   price $244,900
4. 2026-01-22
   listed $249,900 Active
5. 2025-10-27
   soldstatus $155,000
6. 2025-08-18
   listed $198,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $878 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,023/yr (+$85/mo · 116.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$878
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,671
• − Management: −$1,671
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$4,762
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dade City, FL
• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+15.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-18 Listed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $878 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.