4110 Riedley Rd · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1952 8,999 sqft lot Est $219k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch in a convenient location. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• True primary suite
• 8,999 sq ft lot

Tags

• TRUE PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Front entry and driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch home; One story; Built in 1952
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (including a primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating present (one HVAC unit); Central air conditioning (one HVAC unit)
• Interior features: Seven rooms total; No basement; First-floor laundry; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $165k implies a 560% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.38%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2403 Elkhorn Ln	0.21mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,308 (-13%)	2mo	$136,500	$104	58
2213 Amboy Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,554 (+4%)	11mo	$200,000	$129	58
2718 Pioneer Rd	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,369 (-9%)	1mo	$199,900	$146	56
2906 Ralph Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	4mo	$215,000	$160	56
3336 Van Winkle Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,375 (-8%)	9mo	$195,000	$142	54
2219 Perth Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-12%)	8mo	$245,000	$187	52
3308 Fern Lea Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-3%)	11mo	$220,000	$152	52
2304 Strotman Rd	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-15%)	10mo	$235,000	$184	51
3309 Fern Lea Rd	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,575 (+5%)	6mo	$185,000	$117	48
3339 Kramers Ln	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (+7%)	8mo	$185,000	$116	46
2617 Neblett Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,323 (-12%)	2mo	$230,000	$174	43
4010 Addison Ln	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,715 (+14%)	1mo	$215,000	$125	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,375
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,065
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,741 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,333

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $416	-5% $369	+0% $323	+5% $276	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $185	-5% $254	+0% $323	+5% $391	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $365	base $323	+0.5pp $280	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2008 Foxhurst Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	25d	1	0.75mi
4105 North Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	2229	$2,300	$1.03	4d	1	0.92mi
4403 Savage Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1325	$2,065	$1.56	25d	1	1.16mi
4330 Bayberry Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,395	$1.23	25d	1	1.19mi
4406 Clarene Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	17d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   status Active
3. 2026-04-24
   price $165,000
4. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-20
   price $176,000
6. 2026-04-13
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2016-01-21
   soldstatus $25,000 Closed 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch in a convenient location. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION.

8. 2015-12-03
   status Pending 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch in a convenient location. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION.

9. 2015-09-14
   listed $31,000 Active 147-char remark

   Show marketing remark (147 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch in a convenient location. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION.

10. 2015-09-14
    price $24,900 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch in a convenient location. SEE ATTACHMENT FOR PAS REQUIREMENTS AND WFHM OFFER SUBMITTAL INFORMATION IN MLS DOCUMENT SECTION.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,895
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,672
• − Management: −$1,672
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,257
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$302
• After-tax cash flow: $3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+562.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-24 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-20 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $176,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $165,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-01-21 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2015-12-03 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2015-09-14 Listed $31,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2015-09-14 Price Changed $24,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,428 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.