2650 James Smith Ln · Tallahassee, FL 32309

$222,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2004 0.76 ac lot Est $402k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location is everything, and this home has it all! Tucked away at the end of a quiet dead end street, this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath Jim Waters home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and space. Built in 2004 with approximately 1,922 square feet, this home is ideal for a growing family and even includes a dedicated office space for those who work from home. Situated on a spacious 0.76-acre lot, you can enjoy peaceful country-style living while still being close to all the conveniences of city life. Located just minutes from Alfred B. Maclay Gardens State Park, the vibrant Market District, shopping, dining, and entertainment, this location is hard to beat. Enjoy having many of

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 20 days

Tags

• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• SPACIOUS 0.76-ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story residence; Zoned for single-family residential
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.76 acres; Lot dimensions about 248 x 133; Dirt road access; Short-term rentals allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen included
• Bedrooms: Multiple bedrooms (four indicated)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Office
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-734/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,568 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4145 Yardley Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,900 (+0%)	2mo	$411,400	$217	86
3799 Forsythe Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-5%)	3mo	$400,000	$222	74
3046 Banks Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,905 (+0%)	3mo	$336,000	$176	66
3020 Barclay Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,112 (+11%)	1mo	$385,000	$182	64
3716 Suffolk Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,783 (-6%)	1mo	$422,300	$237	62
2492 Elfinwing Ln	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,146 (+13%)	2mo	$526,500	$245	56
3640 Barbary Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-8%)	3mo	$330,000	$189	56
3915 Royal Oaks Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+11%)	3mo	$425,000	$202	55
2319 Lake Hall Rd	0.34mi	3/3.0	2,170 (+14%)	4mo	$495,000	$228	53
3806 Leane Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,030 (+7%)	4mo	$430,000	$212	53
3710 Anthony Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,075 (+9%)	2mo	$385,000	$186	50
3661 Barbary Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+10%)	1mo	$415,500	$200	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-29,227
• Equity at exit: $33,101

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $17,918
• Equity at exit: $19,195

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32309

• Rents YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,996 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax from tax record: −$381 /mo · $4,572/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,073

Max offer price $211,199

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3740 Donovan Dr Unit B Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,550	$1.24	14d	1	0.77mi
5326 Saint Ives Ln Tallahassee, FL	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,495	$1.43	14d	1	0.96mi
4475 Bayshore Cir Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,800	$1.29	21d	1	0.98mi
4102 Tam O Shanter Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1781	$2,300	$1.29	21d	1	1.06mi
2522 Manassas Way Tallahassee, FL	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,500	$1.32	21d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $222,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $222,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $222,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $222,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $222,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $222,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $222,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,572 · $381/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,572 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$4,572
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,916
• − Management: −$1,916
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$4,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,544
• Household income: $113,412
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 789.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 9% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.85%
• Current HPI: 247.4336
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.06%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $222,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,572 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.