5 Walnut Dr · Oriskany, NY 13492

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot Est $196k · 24% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Easy living in a great location makes this updated and affordable ranch the smart choice. Enjoy the Adirondack feeling of the family room with wood stove. Then step outside and view the spacious yard from your deck. Large entry hall and laundry room. Two year old high efficiency furnace.

Key facts

• Ranch home
• Updated bath
• Generous mudroom

Tags

• RANCH HOME
• WHITESBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT
• UPDATED BATH
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS MUDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story existing home
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Blown-in insulation; Asphalt roof; Block and slab foundation; Resale condition
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot with 75 x 153 dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Natural woodwork; Hardwood, vinyl and mixed flooring; Main-level bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#516 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Whitesboro Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #174 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $149k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.43%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,144
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Ashwood Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+0%)	6mo	$195,000	$163	78
20 Ashwood Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-11%)	8mo	$190,000	$179	67
56 Ashwood Ave	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,065 (-11%)	19mo	$174,900	$164	52
36 Walnut Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-12%)	21mo	$172,000	$164	52
44 Beechnut	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,028 (-14%)	4mo	$211,894	$206	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,169
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $24,506
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13492

• Home prices YoY: -12.3%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,851 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,491/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,436

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $370	+0% $328	+5% $286	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $182	-5% $255	+0% $328	+5% $401	+10% $474
Rate	-1.0pp $403	-0.5pp $366	base $328	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 476-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $149,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,491 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,491 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$3,491
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,777
• − Management: −$1,777
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $1,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$418
• After-tax cash flow: $3,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitesboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631320
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,732
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1217
• State rank: #174 of 590 in NY

Livability — Oriskany

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #516
• US rank: #9148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,233

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.24%
• Current HPI: 314.4606
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $149,000 CNYIS
• 2016-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $78,065 Public Records
• 2016-02-08 Sold (MLS) $80,500 CNYIS
• 2015-10-28 Listed $82,900 CNYIS
• 2015-10-28 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2015-09-08 Listed $89,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,491 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.