3233 Blue Hill Rd · Rogers, AR 72758

$235,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1964 1.16 ac lot Est $266k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Surrounded by mature trees and sitting on a large ONE plus acre lot, you will find this older, very clean and well maintained home. Heating and air conditioning is only 6 years old. This is a livable home, will be sold "as-is". Plenty of space for tinkering and hobbies, there are two connected workshops complete with workbenches and room enough for parking large toys such as a full size RV and boat. Shop is about 40ft x 60ft. Close to the Monte Ne restaurant and boat ramp. No showings until Tuesday, April 7.

Key facts

• Parking large toys
• Workbenches
• Boat ramp

Tags

• TWO CONNECTED WORKSHOPS
• WORKBENCHES
• PARKING LARGE TOYS
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 1.16 acres; Annual tax amount listed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water available
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built prior to or in 2026
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Outbuilding; Cleared lot; Rolling slope; Shared road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Flooring: Carpet; Parquet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($822/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.5% in Rogers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#1 in AR, #98 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones Elementary School (math 52% / reading 39%, grade D-, #135 of 454 statewide, top 30%, 492 students, 72% FRL); Kirksey Middle School (math 44% / reading 55%, grade C, #35 of 201 statewide, top 18%, 1,022 students, 55% FRL); Rogers High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #58 of 292 statewide, top 20%, 2,284 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $235k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $186,927 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,000
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3109 E Graham Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+1%)	12mo	$250,000	$186	62
14184 Highway 94	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+12%)	2mo	$298,000	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-36,639
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-37,920
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72758

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 441
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $935/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,783

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $135	+0% $68	+5% $2	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-79	-5% $-5	+0% $68	+5% $142	+10% $216
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $128	base $68	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $235,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $235,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 45 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    status Pending
19. 2026-05-01
    price $235,000
20. 2026-04-01
    listed $269,000 Active
21. 2024-07-03
    price $299,000
22. 2015-08-26
    soldstatus $90,000
23. 1988-01-21
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $935 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$569/yr (+$47/mo · 60.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$935
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,268
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$784
• After-tax cash flow: $1,606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Rogers

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #98

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• City population: 90,024
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 48,233
• Household income: $99,147
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 25% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.74%
• Current HPI: 301.8902
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+2036.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NWARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $235,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $269,000 NWARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $299,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $935 · +208.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.