45 Elk Brook Rd · Downsville, NY 12776

$265,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1975 0.31 ac lot $368/sqft · 26% below area Est $359k · 26% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. Additional Information: Amenities:Storage,

Key facts

• Beaverkill river
• Covered front porch
• New well pump

Tags

• CATSKILLS CABIN
• BEAVERKILL RIVER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• REAR DECK
• NEW WELL PUMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Existing construction
• Construction: Wood siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Propane tank (leased); River access (Beaver Kill); Stream frontage; Corner lot; Irregular lot; Lot dimensions approximately 100 x 199

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Galley kitchen; Partially furnished; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry on main level; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-649 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (43.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (46.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (46.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.9% in Downsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#959 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,054 (46.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.41%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 15.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $358,879
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -26.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $37,415
• Equity at exit: $168,956

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $141,787
• Equity at exit: $308,457

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12776

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,421 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,450/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-649

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,241

Max offer price $150,436

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-499	-5% $-574	+0% $-649	+5% $-724	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-761	-5% $-705	+0% $-649	+5% $-592	+10% $-536
Rate	-1.0pp $-515	-0.5pp $-581	base $-649	+0.5pp $-717	+1.0pp $-787

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $265,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $265,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $265,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 32 DOM
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $265,000 Active 1162-char remark
19. 2024-11-19
    soldstatus $205,000
20. 2024-11-14
    soldstatus $205,000 Closed 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

21. 2024-11-14
    soldstatus $205,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

22. 2024-08-30
    status Pending 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

23. 2024-08-30
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

24. 2024-08-01
    listed $199,000 Active 842-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

25. 2024-08-01
    listed $199,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1893 chars)

    Rare and coveted, the Brookie is the fly fisherman's prize. A cabin across the street from fishing access for under $200k - that's a rare prize as well. Just this once, catch but don't release! Seated on the banks of the Beaverkill River in Roscoe, AKA Trout Town USA, the Brookie is a cozy two bedroom, one bathroom home. The open living area has plenty of space for a dedicated kitchen dining room and living area. Two bedrooms open to the living room, and the large bathroom has a washer and dryer. The cabin, built in 1975 is spacious enough to entertain, but small enough to be the perfect weekend escape or rental, with minimal maintenance and upkeep costs. Relax on the spacious covered front porch, or cook out on the back deck. The lot is flat and park-like, with mature perennials and privacy hedges on both sides. Elk Brook Road is a dead end road, with fishing access along the Beaverkill, and the river cuts a dramatic valley through the mountains, visible from the property. In addition to the home, there is a storage shed and a workshop on the property. The workshop is built on a concrete slab with 30 amp electric service, lighting and a propane fueled forge. It has been used as a knife making studio, and an intrepid craftsperson may inquire about purchasing the contents. If that's not your forte, enjoy a game room, art studio, or workshop for your chosen craft in this additional structure. Roscoe features a vibrant main street just 12 minutes drive from the home. Dine at the popular Junction, or grab drinks at Do Good Spirits just down the street. Grizzly Bagels is coming soon to the neighborhood, and if those options aren't enough for you, take a short jaunt to Livingston Manor for more dining, drinks and shopping. Don't forget to stock up on fishing gear on your way out, the Beaverkill Angler will have you outfitted for success in this outdoors paradise.

26. 2015-04-30
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,464 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,014/yr (+$85/mo · 41.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,450
• − Insurance: −$2,122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$12,807
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,074
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Downsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #959
• US rank: #18785

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,046

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Current HPI: 298.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+284.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $265,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-14 Sold (MLS) $205,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-11-14 Sold (MLS) $205,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-30 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-30 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $199,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-08-01 Listed $199,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,450 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.